2002
Abstract:
Although the full picture is necessarily complex and many commentators are
pointing to signs of re-centralization, population and employment in the 3132
counties of the U.S. continues to decentralize. This is based on an analysis of
annual data from the Regional Economic Information System (REIS) by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, of the U.S. Department of Commerce) that
describes population and employment and income for seven major economic
sectors for all counties over the years 1969-1999. The more specific conclusions of
this analysis are as follows. First, Frostbelt-Sunbelt migration remains a powerful
trend. Climate counts. Second, the facts do not support the idea of a "return to the
cities", "regeneration", or any resurgence of compact development despite a strong
policy interest in achieving such outcomes. Third, the dominant trends show an
ebb and flow over time between growth in exurban and in suburban locations.
Suburban growth was concentrated in the middle-sized metro areas. Exurban areas
and rural counties usually performed better than core counties. Consistently, the
core counties of the largest metro areas have fared worst, even in the most recent
period (1995-99) when they did a little better. Fourth, most firms no longer have
to seek locations in traditional high-density centers to achieve agglomeration
economies; they can either do without them or find them in low-density regions.
Finally, most planners in pursuit of "smart growth" are attempting to counter
potent market trends in favor of more dispersal, potentially a costly strategy.
