Nevin said he did not expect "multi-family" permits - those for apartments and condominiums - to decline any more than originally forecast, especially because apartment construction is trending up. Between 45,000 and 55,000 multi-family units are likely to be built statewide, he said. As many as 12,500 of those will be in the Bay Area, where demand for apartments is especially strong. At a separate presentation Thursday, economist Delores Conway of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California said rent increases in the San Jose area, for example, have been among the highest in the country recently.
But in the national for-sale housing market and across the wider Western United States, "the basic story is uncertainty and a bit of nervousness," said her colleague, Raphael Bostic. The mixed messages of a record-breaking stock market and slower economic growth, he said, have "really left consumers a bit confused."
Consumers are leery of buying new homes now, agreed Southern California builder Brian Catalde at another session Thursday. Catalde, who is president this year of the National Association of Home Builders, said that in 2006 his customers visited a new-home community's sales office an average of twice before they bought. But now people make eight to 12 visits without buying. When asked why, nearly three-quarters of them said they feared they'd buy a home and then the builder would lower prices again, effectively wiping out new buyers' home equity.