Best Practices in Commercial Tenant Management

Please note this transcription is automated and may contain errors.

3
00:01:24.810 --> 00:01:37.170
Richard Green: Okay, thank you. Well, hello everybody and a very pleasant afternoon to you all. Thank you for joining us for our fourth lust perspective series over zoom

4
00:01:37.830 --> 00:01:56.220
Richard Green: I'm Richard green I'm director of the USC lust center for real estate and it's my pleasure to welcome you here today. We have a super panel set up to talk about best practices in tenant and other management in these unusual times will introduce the panel in a moment.

5
00:01:57.300 --> 00:02:07.410
Richard Green: But just a little housekeeping. Again, we have shut down the chat function and muted you all because of a to avoid zoom bombing.

6
00:02:08.490 --> 00:02:13.140
Richard Green: So if you have questions, please send them to

7
00:02:14.790 --> 00:02:21.900
Richard Green: The following address Liu SK CT are@usc.edu

8
00:02:23.610 --> 00:02:24.330
Richard Green: And

9
00:02:25.980 --> 00:02:36.450
Richard Green: They will come to me and I will acknowledge who asked the question, and then pose them to our panelists. So again, I will repeat that in a little bit, but

10
00:02:36.870 --> 00:02:47.850
Richard Green: If you want to ask a question, please send us an email at Lusk ctr@usc.edu and we will do our best to get all of your questions.

11
00:02:48.510 --> 00:02:55.050
Richard Green: Out there. So the other day we had 35 questions so i i'm not going to promise we're going to be able to get through that so

12
00:02:55.950 --> 00:03:13.980
Richard Green: With that. Um, the other thing is upcoming events and the less perspectives. Next week we will have to, we will have ivy Zelman from zoom and associates the really terrific analyst of the housing market public home builders, etc. And we will be doing a panel on

13
00:03:15.180 --> 00:03:22.230
Richard Green: The mortgage market problems in the mortgage plumbing, as I call it, featuring Ted Tozer who is president Ginnie Mae

14
00:03:23.250 --> 00:03:28.920
Richard Green: At Golding who is the Commissioner of the Federal Housing Administration and Lori Goodman, who

15
00:03:29.940 --> 00:03:36.450
Richard Green: spent a number of years of Credit Suisse. And then at Amherst securities and it's one of the finest analysts in the mortgage market. I know.

16
00:03:37.230 --> 00:03:46.410
Richard Green: So with that, let me introduce our terrific panel today to talk about these issues of property management tenant management least management, etc.

17
00:03:47.010 --> 00:03:56.730
Richard Green: In these times I have said to them, they don't have to share. Bad news if they don't have an A. But if they do, please. How are you being informed by it and how are you dealing with it.

18
00:03:57.270 --> 00:04:11.760
Richard Green: Our panelists are Stanley iseman who is the CEO of American realty advisors has been a member of our board for some years now. I think Stanley, you go well before it back well before by time.

19
00:04:12.000 --> 00:04:15.180
Richard Green: Don't use and any teachers.

20
00:04:16.590 --> 00:04:31.650
Richard Green: In the MBA program that volunteer emirate program for us. Rachel wine, who is a retail consultant whenever leading clients is Publix, which I'm sure he knows one of the most successful grocery chains.

21
00:04:31.740 --> 00:04:51.960
Richard Green: In the country. She is a co member with me of the CRC gold product council at you alive, that's how I've gotten to know her, and very thoughtful about what are the influences affecting the retail market in general. And right now, in particular, and finally a

22
00:04:52.140 --> 00:04:58.140
Richard Green: David doll injure for whom our masters of real estate development program is named the dollar voucher em read

23
00:04:58.680 --> 00:05:11.700
Richard Green: On David also is a member of I believe the inaugural class of the hemorrhage degree and a very successful developer and owner of industrial property and so

24
00:05:12.480 --> 00:05:16.470
Richard Green: We have coverage of pretty much all property types here.

25
00:05:16.920 --> 00:05:27.510
Richard Green: And we're eager to hear what you have to say. So I think what I'll do is I'll just start looking at my right and go to my left, which you have no idea what that means, but it's going to be Stanley then Rachel.

26
00:05:27.750 --> 00:05:31.170
Richard Green: Then David so Stanley, if you could say a few words about what you're seeing out there right now.

27
00:05:31.650 --> 00:05:41.640
stanley iezman: Okay, well, since it's only been a month since we went into lockdown mode with shelter in place rules. I think that a lot has changed over the last several weeks.

28
00:05:42.300 --> 00:05:50.910
stanley iezman: Three weeks ago I was concerned about the retail impact of our of our retail tenants with all the letters that we were receiving from our tenants.

29
00:05:51.840 --> 00:05:59.580
stanley iezman: Concerning foursome is your and in possibility of performance and seeking rent reductions and then we thought that that was going to translate into

30
00:06:00.300 --> 00:06:08.700
stanley iezman: Our the rest of our portfolio as well. And what we're very pleased to to announce is is that actually we were very surprised in terms of our collections.

31
00:06:09.510 --> 00:06:18.480
stanley iezman: On the office side we're about 82% in our multifamily we're about 92%. I'm sorry. In our multifamily we're about 91%

32
00:06:19.110 --> 00:06:30.810
stanley iezman: Our industrial we're we're about 90% and in our retail portfolio. We're about 55%. So what we expected to see clearly came about as a result of our

33
00:06:31.170 --> 00:06:40.410
stanley iezman: Of our retail. So what do we have been doing right now, over the last several weeks, as we've been trying to develop protocols to deal with each one of our tenants in our various

34
00:06:40.950 --> 00:06:47.250
stanley iezman: Portfolios and how we're going to respond to each one of them is really start to look at each of the leases and determine

35
00:06:47.760 --> 00:06:57.600
stanley iezman: Whether there are clauses and into those leases that we can negotiate out as part and parcel of any rent reduction that we're going to be dealing with and that's going to be an open

36
00:06:58.110 --> 00:07:05.520
stanley iezman: Open item to see whether we're going to be successful at that, number one, and number two, to really acknowledge the fact that there may be a

37
00:07:05.970 --> 00:07:15.570
stanley iezman: PR risk of doing that because the first at first and foremost, we do have to recognize that on the retail side know what Rachel really deal with this is that we want our retail

38
00:07:15.960 --> 00:07:21.990
stanley iezman: Tenants in our small mom and pops to survive and we recognize that they're being decimated as a result of what is transpiring

39
00:07:22.710 --> 00:07:31.500
stanley iezman: The shocker to me though is the number of tenants that have sent in rent relief request from on the retail side and on the office side.

40
00:07:32.490 --> 00:07:44.430
stanley iezman: That are major tenants with well capitalized and have the ability to pay the rent and I find it shocking that they're asking for. Remember the major law firms around the country, asking for rent relief.

41
00:07:45.570 --> 00:07:55.470
stanley iezman: When we know that they have the ad successful years over the last several years. So we sort of put that in the bucket of moral hazard. We are looking at this in differently.

42
00:07:56.340 --> 00:08:04.410
stanley iezman: Than than we would otherwise. And it reminds me of a great expression that I remember somebody in our school when said, Richard, which was

43
00:08:04.950 --> 00:08:15.390
stanley iezman: You're a capitalist when things are going well and you're a socialist when things are going bad. And it seems like everybody's becoming a socialist right now looking for somebody to hand a give them a handout.

44
00:08:16.230 --> 00:08:29.100
stanley iezman: In terms of being able to operate. I won't get into PvP right now, which is the payroll protection plan and the ones that are going to be. We're going to be talking about, but it's something that probably should be discussed in this in this call.

45
00:08:32.400 --> 00:08:32.850
stanley iezman: Can you

46
00:08:34.350 --> 00:08:34.500
stanley iezman: Read

47
00:08:34.800 --> 00:08:44.520
Richard Green: This one question before I turn it over to Rachel, which is when you're talking about collections that says of what date and how do they look compared to usual month as of that day.

48
00:08:44.760 --> 00:08:55.500
stanley iezman: Um, I think we're looking at as as of yesterday. I'm in terms of collection. So it's real time information and it's only off its off by about 8% in terms of what we typically get

49
00:08:55.800 --> 00:08:58.230
stanley iezman: Okay, except the retail. I'm sorry, three jealous.

50
00:08:58.350 --> 00:08:59.400
stanley iezman: I understand that I'm

51
00:08:59.400 --> 00:09:02.700
Richard Green: Curious about the office and apartment was that

52
00:09:03.510 --> 00:09:06.840
stanley iezman: That's tenants. That's not dollars. So we're not dollar wedding this at all.

53
00:09:06.960 --> 00:09:10.380
Richard Green: Got it. Okay, great. Thank you. Stanley, Rachel.

54
00:09:10.950 --> 00:09:23.820
Rachel Wein: Alright so Stanley touched a bit on on retail go a bit deeper on that. And I just want to set the groundwork. So, Richard. First of all, thank you for having me. It's my first experience with the last center so

55
00:09:24.120 --> 00:09:30.570
Rachel Wein: I'm really pleased to be here with you all from sunny South Florida. Um, and

56
00:09:31.290 --> 00:09:41.310
Rachel Wein: I work with both tenants and landlords so institutional greed owners and then operators and Publix and Kroger would be two major grocery retailers that I work with. So I just want to

57
00:09:41.610 --> 00:10:01.320
Rachel Wein: caveat that these are my opinions and not those of Publix or Kroger, but I would say that generally and retail what what Stanley has has said is, is reflected nationally. If we could break that down a bit on the Mall side we're seeing collections roughly 15 to 20%

58
00:10:02.760 --> 00:10:07.710
Rachel Wein: Of expected at this point in the month if it's a lifestyle center.

59
00:10:08.310 --> 00:10:20.010
Rachel Wein: Maybe up to 20 to 25% of April rents collected in the shopping center space grocery anchored institutional quality roughly 50% if it's

60
00:10:20.310 --> 00:10:31.830
Rachel Wein: It's a little bit better in the grocery dominated sector, in which case it's 50% collected roughly of the adjacent small shop spaces and I do you think it's important to to caveat that

61
00:10:33.240 --> 00:10:35.670
Rachel Wein: We're talking about the institutional quality space.

62
00:10:35.850 --> 00:10:36.390
Rachel Wein: So,

63
00:10:36.540 --> 00:10:39.150
Rachel Wein: For most of these large national retailers.

64
00:10:40.260 --> 00:10:48.690
Rachel Wein: I still find the shocking at 70 to 80% of their landlords are single owners mom and pop owners of shopping centers.

65
00:10:49.740 --> 00:10:55.620
Rachel Wein: And, you know, let's call it 60 some odd thousand and shopping centers in the country, of which only

66
00:10:56.100 --> 00:11:09.810
Rachel Wein: Call the top 10% are owned by rates and maybe you know double or triple that you end up with all of the institutional grade and retail shopping centers in the country. So, this information is skewed towards a better quality assets and we're still seeing

67
00:11:11.070 --> 00:11:23.550
Rachel Wein: You know, rents recoveries pretty terrible. If we could put some lipstick on it. I guess there are certain bright spots and then other concerning areas.

68
00:11:24.930 --> 00:11:40.380
Rachel Wein: And I'm going to go ahead and name names is this is public staples is open and operating and not paying rent Ross sent a letter out to all of their landlords that they were not going to pay rent for all of 2020 they then

69
00:11:40.830 --> 00:11:51.090
Rachel Wein: Advanced April rent to their owners. And I think this may be some of the tenants that Stan is alluding to that and good times, it's good and bad times.

70
00:11:51.720 --> 00:11:56.910
Rachel Wein: You know those good times have evaporated as opposed for those retailers. So I think we've been

71
00:11:57.540 --> 00:12:08.220
Rachel Wein: Telling a narrative over the last 12 to 18 months that landlords and retailers are on the same side against Amazon and that's been, you know, the narrative that we've been talking about and

72
00:12:08.580 --> 00:12:23.010
Rachel Wein: You know, now I think it's really clear which retailers are willing to partner with their landlords for the best outcome acknowledging that everyone is having pain and which ones are only thinking of themselves in short term.

73
00:12:25.920 --> 00:12:37.740
Rachel Wein: You know, generally, when we're thinking about read relief and what we're expecting were bucketing tenants into are they open an operating. Are they central retail. Are they open but you know at some significantly reduced rate, which would be some

74
00:12:37.950 --> 00:12:45.810
Rachel Wein: Restaurants where they may be getting double the takeout revenue. So it takes out his five to 10% of a typical restaurant.

75
00:12:46.560 --> 00:12:53.190
Rachel Wein: They may be getting double that. But of course that's still 70 to 80% less than normal sale. So we'll kind of relief. Are we giving to them.

76
00:12:53.550 --> 00:13:06.780
Rachel Wein: And then all the other mom and pop so and i would i would love single franchisees and with a mom and pops and are being as generous as we possibly can. Significant deferrals and the only abatements that I've seen.

77
00:13:07.860 --> 00:13:21.600
Rachel Wein: Across the board are with Publix supermarket Alyssa is 282 shopping centers over 2500 single tenants and the affiliated rent for two months I'll leave that that's a bright side.

78
00:13:22.320 --> 00:13:37.680
Richard Green: So let me let me one follow up question. Rachel is when you look at that lack of collections and this will also riff off of Stanley's point what CHAIR OF IT. DO YOU THINK ARE is the moral hazard issue and what share. Do you think as people just don't have any money to pay the rent.

79
00:13:41.070 --> 00:13:53.970
Rachel Wein: You know, I can't put a number on that it is unknowable. It is unknowable. Certainly a large portion of them can pay, but for mom and pop tenants. I just, I don't know that they can pay and if they could pay April.

80
00:13:54.450 --> 00:14:04.800
Rachel Wein: I'm very concerned about their ability to pay. May, so I'm not as bad as it sounds, for April. I'm much more concerned about may

81
00:14:06.030 --> 00:14:09.630
Rachel Wein: And I don't think anyone that could tell you differently as nobody tell you

82
00:14:10.440 --> 00:14:14.520
stanley iezman: You know, I just want to tag on to what Rachel was just talking about. I mean, there has been

83
00:14:15.030 --> 00:14:21.210
stanley iezman: A continuing trend of retail stores shutting down over the last three years. So all this has done is exacerbate

84
00:14:21.660 --> 00:14:31.530
stanley iezman: And accelerate the pace at which these the slow down has occurred. There were a lot of companies out there that were completely over leveraged and had download sheets that we're just not supported.

85
00:14:31.830 --> 00:14:41.130
stanley iezman: supportable of their business model. And all this is done is just pushing those over the edge and those that are being backed by and this is really where a challenge comes in.

86
00:14:41.490 --> 00:14:46.260
stanley iezman: Those retailers that are backed by private equity firms. Think about that. I mean, why should

87
00:14:46.650 --> 00:14:58.140
stanley iezman: Why should they pay up. They've got the portfolio capital behind it to be able to fund the operations and to pay rent. I'm just a dimension that I just want to solve the think about is, we're thinking talking about this.

88
00:14:59.070 --> 00:15:05.430
Rachel Wein: Yeah, I think that's important. I mean, there, there is certainly going to be a share of these larger national retailers that

89
00:15:06.210 --> 00:15:10.650
Rachel Wein: While they do not open again period and that will be largely an

90
00:15:11.280 --> 00:15:17.880
Rachel Wein: Acceleration of what we expected. So I think there's really, there's two camps here and we're going to talk about where we see the future and

91
00:15:18.330 --> 00:15:29.070
Rachel Wein: There are the folks that will not open up again. Surely there there are. There is also a large chunk and I don't think the retailers have quite had their moment yet where they

92
00:15:29.580 --> 00:15:36.750
Rachel Wein: Really come to realize that this is necessary, but if you have 150 sorry 1500 stores 750 stores and you have

93
00:15:37.350 --> 00:15:53.400
Rachel Wein: Limited capital, you should really strongly consider not opening back up all 1500 stores are all 750 stores. So we have not seen that conversation had within the retailers executive teams, there's still a focus on yourself. Anyhow, it'll happen.

94
00:15:55.380 --> 00:16:02.700
Richard Green: So David, before I turn it over to you. Just because we have a number of people come into the room. Let me just repeat the ground rules.

95
00:16:03.240 --> 00:16:24.000
Richard Green: To avoid being zoom bombed. We have turned your mics off and the chat function off. So if you have a question for any of our panelists, please send an email to lust CTR all one word L US K ctr@usc.edu So David, please tell us how you're viewing industrial right now.

96
00:16:24.750 --> 00:16:34.050
Dave Dollinger: My portfolio is mainly R amp D in Silicon Valley and also some buildings in San Diego, and I think it's pretty good I think.

97
00:16:34.650 --> 00:16:47.460
Dave Dollinger: I'm not going to put a number on it, but it's it's above 90% paid. There was a few venture capital back firms that played games and said they couldn't pay rent and then we gave gave him notices and they all paid

98
00:16:48.930 --> 00:17:03.720
Dave Dollinger: But it's. We also have a bunch of retail as well in Los Angeles and in Northern California. And there were probably in the 55 to 60% the grocery stores pharmacies, the banks urgent cares. They've all paid

99
00:17:05.070 --> 00:17:14.700
Dave Dollinger: Every restaurant in our portfolio, except for and I'll call fast food Starbucks and chip whole day did not pay this month and

100
00:17:15.390 --> 00:17:26.370
Dave Dollinger: What is amazing to me and Stanley said this before, is the amount of so called credit companies that couldn't pay the rent within two weeks, and it's just it's astonishing to me.

101
00:17:26.970 --> 00:17:35.490
Dave Dollinger: And I got the same letter from Ross and Ross has always been a very difficult tenant and if they don't want to pay me and my center. We're going to evict them.

102
00:17:36.030 --> 00:17:39.090
Dave Dollinger: And will replace them with someone else. And so

103
00:17:40.020 --> 00:17:46.680
Dave Dollinger: We have sent eviction notices to if you're a credit company and you've got stores across the country and you didn't pay this month.

104
00:17:46.980 --> 00:17:55.500
Dave Dollinger: Like Bed, Bath and Beyond. Then you got an eviction notice if you're a mom and pop we gave you two months of no rent and then you can pay it back over the next year.

105
00:17:56.880 --> 00:17:59.880
Dave Dollinger: And if you're a chain in between we worked out various deals

106
00:18:01.410 --> 00:18:05.610
Dave Dollinger: But I don't really have any sympathy for the credit companies that don't want to pay the rent.

107
00:18:09.690 --> 00:18:11.280
stanley iezman: Richard. Richard

108
00:18:12.210 --> 00:18:13.440
Richard Green: Yeah yeah I'm

109
00:18:15.390 --> 00:18:27.510
Richard Green: A you know why the Congress. We is when I've seen rent collections on apartments. I mean, this is nationally while they're down. If you look at how much they're down and almost perfectly tracks new unemployment claims.

110
00:18:27.930 --> 00:18:36.450
Richard Green: So you can map almost one to one, people who are not paying their Apartment. Rent with people who just don't have any money right now. So that's what I that's not a moral hazard thing that's a

111
00:18:36.840 --> 00:18:41.400
Richard Green: People don't have any money to pay thing and it sounds like in

112
00:18:41.970 --> 00:18:55.890
Richard Green: The non apartments space, things are quite different. And so, and that's sort of what happened if we go back to the financial crisis, we saw very different. We saw very similar sorts of behavior on the consumer side visa V, the business side.

113
00:18:58.170 --> 00:18:59.250
Richard Green: With respect to credit

114
00:18:59.460 --> 00:19:05.820
stanley iezman: Let me, let me throw something in about that because first of all, I mean, I thought what we thought was going to happen was in our, in our portfolio.

115
00:19:06.330 --> 00:19:17.670
stanley iezman: Is that there would be a differentiation between the A, B, and C quality profits and we thought that the see properties would underperformed is simply because that was workforce housing and surprisingly that has not actually happen.

116
00:19:17.760 --> 00:19:18.180
Richard Green: But that's

117
00:19:18.240 --> 00:19:25.770
stanley iezman: The month of that is the month it's it's down. I mean, it's significant. It's about it's significantly down be from the, from the equality.

118
00:19:26.580 --> 00:19:30.480
stanley iezman: But it was nowhere near where we would have expected because those are the first people to be laid off.

119
00:19:31.140 --> 00:19:35.490
stanley iezman: We think that that is just aberrational because of the fact that it's an April.

120
00:19:36.000 --> 00:19:44.160
stanley iezman: Where our big risk is is what's going to happen in May as Rachel was talking about. That's our, our big concerns me is the big month for for all of us.

121
00:19:44.550 --> 00:19:58.650
stanley iezman: But the. What I will say is, is their opportunity, everybody's being opportunistic with regard to paying rent. Even the class eight tenants who are who are who have great jobs they're being opportunistic saying give me you have sympathy.

122
00:20:00.300 --> 00:20:07.860
stanley iezman: You need to give me opportunities to pay overtime and we're just saying, No, we're just not going to do it because we just don't think it's appropriate to do

123
00:20:08.610 --> 00:20:15.390
stanley iezman: In the in that space in the industrial side I will say, though, there's, there's an interesting observation is that in our

124
00:20:15.750 --> 00:20:23.970
stanley iezman: multi tenant industrial portfolio, there has been a fall off. So it's about a, as I said, it's about an eight to 10% fall off and rent.

125
00:20:24.420 --> 00:20:39.930
stanley iezman: But it's typically coming from the multi tenant smaller tenants that are servicing the the retail sector that are not able to perform because they can't get out there. So supply chain really becomes an issue for for everybody involved in this conversation.

126
00:20:40.860 --> 00:20:47.340
Richard Green: So let me follow up on a comment. Dave made when he talked about who he was giving rent relief to and the length of time he was giving

127
00:20:47.610 --> 00:20:57.810
Richard Green: So, so it's forbearance of rent. It's not a elimination of rent for two months. And you're saying you will give those tenants 12 months afterwards to

128
00:20:58.200 --> 00:21:12.480
Richard Green: pay the rent back. And the question I have is, is that going to be burdened summer you think that makes sense. And what else are people seeing thinking about with respect to how does the catch up happen when we come out from this

129
00:21:13.050 --> 00:21:20.970
Richard Green: And I'll look I'll leave that for any of our three panel out of it is the most important thing is to have tenants in your buildings intense they're paying rent so

130
00:21:21.210 --> 00:21:27.030
Dave Dollinger: evicting all of your tenants doesn't do you any good. So we want them to survive. So I think you need to take it on a

131
00:21:28.770 --> 00:21:39.120
Dave Dollinger: Each individual tenant and see their own situation. It's not a one catch all for everybody. So we're going to have tenants that we're probably aren't going to collect rent. We're going to forgive it

132
00:21:39.630 --> 00:21:50.100
Dave Dollinger: But generally, we're going to tenant saying, Okay, you want these two months free then extend your lease for five years or get rid of this exclusive clause or do something else. And so there's a little bit of given taken all this

133
00:21:51.150 --> 00:22:02.670
Dave Dollinger: But you can't just come and say give me what shocks me the amount of credit tenants that write you a letter and don't ask for rent deferment or relief. They just tell you we're not paying in the next three months.

134
00:22:03.450 --> 00:22:12.900
Dave Dollinger: You know, tough tough. Yeah, we're just not paying and it says to me in the 2001 downturn, which focused on the high tech here the retail kind of saved me.

135
00:22:13.440 --> 00:22:28.140
Dave Dollinger: And I got all the VCs, one and all these free rent. This is the exact opposite. Now we have the industrial and r&d doing well and the retail is acting like the VC firms did in 2001 and just not paying. So it's a complete opposite, which is, I think, rather interesting

136
00:22:28.710 --> 00:22:40.800
Rachel Wein: I think they're also forgetting that you know as a credit tenant in many cases they have below market rent significantly below market rent and that's an investment that the owner has

137
00:22:40.950 --> 00:22:43.020
Rachel Wein: In that tenant because they believe that

138
00:22:43.380 --> 00:22:55.620
Rachel Wein: You know when it's a rainy day they're going to pay their rent. So they're not paying rent and it's 4568 bucks, depending on where it is for some of these off price retailers, they should get a default letter.

139
00:22:57.240 --> 00:23:02.820
stanley iezman: What, one of the things I would like to point out, though this is this is just sort of an operational issue with the issue of

140
00:23:03.330 --> 00:23:07.890
stanley iezman: Given these rent referrals and trying to amortize it back in and you've asked a very good question that

141
00:23:07.980 --> 00:23:16.650
stanley iezman: Richard is to whether the tenants are going to be able to start paying that that bonus rent that they're going to have to bulk up on their on their rent schedule.

142
00:23:17.310 --> 00:23:21.150
stanley iezman: That's a big concern. And so what David was talking about extending the term.

143
00:23:21.960 --> 00:23:29.460
stanley iezman: Is now becoming more of a default position because you don't want to burden the tenants too much with with paying more rent when they're coming out of this.

144
00:23:30.120 --> 00:23:39.930
stanley iezman: This problem in a slow manner, but I would suggest, though, that for everybody who's listening. Who's got a an accounting department and depending on how large your, your firm is

145
00:23:40.380 --> 00:23:47.490
stanley iezman: You, there has to be interaction between the accounting department to make sure everybody really understands what these deferrals are going to do to your rent schedules.

146
00:23:48.270 --> 00:23:54.660
stanley iezman: And making sure that your, your, your accounting books are maintained appropriately. And if you're a public company.

147
00:23:55.110 --> 00:24:00.000
stanley iezman: Those straight line rents have a don't do not have the same effect as a private company like us.

148
00:24:00.360 --> 00:24:12.840
stanley iezman: Where we're going to be marketing to market and adjusting on a regular basis. So the rents have to be balanced off and understood within everybody who's in the chain of reporting to our investors. So it's something that everybody needs to think about

149
00:24:13.980 --> 00:24:24.030
Richard Green: So, uh, Rachel. What are you in terms of what people are doing at the end of the red debate men period or the forbearance period. What are you seeing out there.

150
00:24:25.350 --> 00:24:34.380
Rachel Wein: So we're seeing 12 month payback as, as has already been mentioned, but, you know, the reality is we're making these decisions.

151
00:24:35.340 --> 00:24:48.120
Rachel Wein: Now, I just, it's all going to depend on when we all get back to business. Right. So I think a lot of this is just kicking the can down the road. So it's easy to say we're going to defer your rent.

152
00:24:48.540 --> 00:25:00.240
Rachel Wein: For two months and then you'll pay it back over 12 or you'll pay it back at the end and you know if it matters if it's three or four or five months of very depressed sales.

153
00:25:00.690 --> 00:25:08.790
Rachel Wein: We're all going to have to go back and look at this, but I'd rather look at it in July and look back and say, how did we really do in May and June.

154
00:25:09.060 --> 00:25:19.620
Rachel Wein: And make accommodations for that rather than looking at my crystal ball and imagining what the next two months. We're going to look like. So, you know, for that. I think it's a very easy decision for both the

155
00:25:20.430 --> 00:25:27.960
Rachel Wein: landlord and the tenant to say let's let's agree on a deferral. We can agree. You know, we think it's going to be a 12 month payback or whatever it is.

156
00:25:28.170 --> 00:25:42.690
Rachel Wein: And we'll look at it again. You know, I mean this this is where the partnership comes in and something to stand point on public companies. One of the things that I'm concerned about is just interested to see what will happen is, how they're going to reserve for these non payments.

157
00:25:42.750 --> 00:25:43.920
Rachel Wein: So are they going to

158
00:25:44.130 --> 00:25:59.250
Rachel Wein: Call it a are. Are they going to write off some of it because we're going to start to see. I mean, first of all, any company that already has a car that's concerning, you know, we're just going to be piling that on and it's going to be very visible very soon.

159
00:26:00.180 --> 00:26:15.300
Richard Green: So you're just you're making me miss our late great share of the last center Stan Ross, who was a brilliant real estate accountant, because he would tell us exactly how to think about the accounting for this stuff and eat almost certainly be right.

160
00:26:16.380 --> 00:26:28.830
Richard Green: We do have a question from Paul bus for Rachel, which is, again, I think I know how you're going to answer it, but I'm going to ask it anyway, is when do you see reopening of shopping centers beginning

161
00:26:29.640 --> 00:26:39.660
Rachel Wein: So I think we can look a little bit to Asia for some idea of what this might look like. And I'll try to break it down into different use cases I'm

162
00:26:40.530 --> 00:26:51.060
Rachel Wein: You know, I'm a little bit of Asia, a little bit of what we saw leader not 100 years ago and 1918 a little bit of what I hear from my husband on the medical side.

163
00:26:51.870 --> 00:26:57.360
Rachel Wein: You know, I think we're going to start to be let out of our houses in a stage ever probably

164
00:26:57.930 --> 00:27:11.820
Rachel Wein: I'm going to say first to June on what's happening in Asia right now is even as people are able to leave their homes are still being there. So recommendation that you should generally stay close to home there had maybe 500 cinemas open up in

165
00:27:12.540 --> 00:27:16.470
Rachel Wein: China so far, they've been virtually empty. I mean, I think we're going to see

166
00:27:16.830 --> 00:27:30.750
Rachel Wein: Either forced reduction and capacity at restaurants and theaters and you know churches and casinos LA. We're going to see forth reductions there and that could go on for a long time.

167
00:27:31.260 --> 00:27:38.760
Rachel Wein: Then we're going to have to see if we end up with something like in Singapore, where they go back to work. There's an outbreak. They go back home. So until we're doing

168
00:27:39.330 --> 00:27:52.650
Rachel Wein: And this is my husband's estimation. And so we're doing a million tests. Today we're gonna have a hard time figuring out how this is spreading and what localized areas we can start to do contract tracing and other kinds of smaller scale shutdowns

169
00:27:53.490 --> 00:28:12.330
Rachel Wein: I would expect to see semi permanent reductions in capacity at restaurants for internal seating spacing six feet apart maximum four people per table that could be 30 or 50% of typical capacity that's if people leave their homes to go and eat.

170
00:28:13.590 --> 00:28:17.880
Rachel Wein: And then, you know, certainly rent as a function of sales. So we're going to have to adjust their

171
00:28:19.020 --> 00:28:31.200
Richard Green: So when we had clay doobie. A couple of weeks ago talking about China very striking picture of restaurants and Lu Han that had police tape around every other table in order to maintain that six foot

172
00:28:31.350 --> 00:28:31.770
Yeah.

173
00:28:32.940 --> 00:28:33.390
Rachel Wein: So,

174
00:28:33.870 --> 00:28:38.700
Rachel Wein: I think we're going to see temperature checks. There are now pretty easy cameras and people can

175
00:28:39.510 --> 00:28:44.370
Richard Green: You every day. My wife walks into the hospital right they do our temperature with an infrared device.

176
00:28:44.970 --> 00:28:55.620
Rachel Wein: And I think you know what what is too soon to tell is there will be some permanent changes that are enacted from this, I think, you know, it's easy to look back at

177
00:28:56.670 --> 00:29:01.380
Rachel Wein: September 11 and see just just from a physical footprint how our

178
00:29:02.190 --> 00:29:15.330
Rachel Wein: airports have changed. And I think we will certainly see long term, permanent changes in our buildings, regardless of whether we have to deal with this. Again, you know, we eventually have a vaccine. We don't have this there will be permanent changes. I think some of it is going to be

179
00:29:16.590 --> 00:29:26.010
Rachel Wein: You know, a change from mixed use to multi use which is it maybe having a little bit less stack uses and a little bit more side by side uses

180
00:29:27.480 --> 00:29:40.410
Rachel Wein: As a project in Seattle. The name escapes me. Where was senior housing on top of, you know, restaurants and bars and we may not want to have old people near restaurants and bars, all the time. So we may just rethink just from our own peace of mind whether that's

181
00:29:41.700 --> 00:29:43.770
Rachel Wein: You know legislated or just how we feel.

182
00:29:43.890 --> 00:29:50.580
Richard Green: Guys, both Stan and I have a question for David. But before I just want to follow up on Rachel's point to have Stan

183
00:29:51.270 --> 00:30:04.290
Richard Green: repeat something I've heard him say in other forums, which is just how you about managing Office buildings and this environment and how horizontal buildings may come to be added advantage. Again, relative to vertical buildings.

184
00:30:04.470 --> 00:30:13.260
stanley iezman: We weren't the process and we just created a task force for downtown LA. And we're working on the task force in New York as well for a properties there.

185
00:30:13.830 --> 00:30:21.360
stanley iezman: To try and determine exactly what a best practice is going to be to open up the buildings, when they start opening, we don't exactly know yet.

186
00:30:21.810 --> 00:30:32.100
stanley iezman: How to do that, it's a it's a process and it's twofold. One is the tenant who how the tenants are going to adjust internally with their staff.

187
00:30:32.520 --> 00:30:39.960
stanley iezman: And how they're going to operate internally within their, their space and us as landlords how we're going to being pre bring people into the building.

188
00:30:40.590 --> 00:30:52.530
stanley iezman: If you saw the article over the weekend in the New York Times about the four seasons in New York about how it converted into a hotel that they converted into a hotel for

189
00:30:53.940 --> 00:30:59.940
stanley iezman: medical workers if you if you read that and you realize that they were taking one person at a time in an elevator.

190
00:31:00.300 --> 00:31:11.130
stanley iezman: That is completely dysfunctional and a office building. So we're, we're trying to figure out what the appropriate spacing is going to be. And again, this is all predicated on the notion that there was no virus.

191
00:31:11.580 --> 00:31:17.070
stanley iezman: If there is no no vaccine. If there's a vaccine and obviously all the, the old conversation changes.

192
00:31:17.430 --> 00:31:23.340
stanley iezman: But this is going to be applicable across the board with all properties, we've got to figure out how to open up our

193
00:31:23.790 --> 00:31:37.230
stanley iezman: multifamily properties in terms of getting people back into the gyms and what are we going to do from cleaning standpoint and is that going to increase our underlying costs, etc. So there's a lot of a lot of unknowns, yet we're still trying to work through

194
00:31:38.640 --> 00:31:51.420
Richard Green: So David, a question about from Craig Bornstein about collections different between single tenant and multi tenant properties and he's commenting that in in their portfolio, they're seeing a pretty large difference

195
00:31:52.890 --> 00:31:54.510
Dave Dollinger: I think it depends on the size of the

196
00:31:54.510 --> 00:31:56.310
Dave Dollinger: Tenant multi tenant properties.

197
00:31:56.790 --> 00:32:06.780
Dave Dollinger: So if you have a multi tenant building that's, you know, a 50,000 foot and you've got to 25 they're paying if it's a bunch of 2000 foot tenants or 5000 foot tenants.

198
00:32:08.040 --> 00:32:20.610
Dave Dollinger: For the most part, I think we're actually collecting most of the rents and the only ones that haven't paid or been troubles are like a deli or a gym that are kind of servicing the area. But other than that, even the multi tenant, we've

199
00:32:21.720 --> 00:32:29.340
Dave Dollinger: Collected almost all I'm not gonna say 100% but we're, we're pretty close on all of our industrial multi tenant or single tenant.

200
00:32:30.840 --> 00:32:32.820
Richard Green: So Stanley opening comment on that.

201
00:32:34.080 --> 00:32:40.830
stanley iezman: I know same. It's the same thing is the small multi tenant that are that are the service tenants that are being more distressed.

202
00:32:41.790 --> 00:32:47.070
Richard Green: So let me ask all of you about the paycheck protection program.

203
00:32:47.760 --> 00:32:55.470
Richard Green: And again, I would take Rachel Stanley, particularly given what you're doing, that this is something that you've been encountering. How do you think it's been going

204
00:32:55.920 --> 00:33:10.980
Richard Green: What a bit so I guess about 260 billion of the 350 billion is now out who's getting that money. How is it going, what's the best way to get it, etc. So um I'll either one of you jump in.

205
00:33:11.640 --> 00:33:12.210
Rachel Wein: And I'd be back.

206
00:33:14.520 --> 00:33:27.750
Rachel Wein: Yeah, it's, it's been a real struggle. I'm pretty disappointed that the larger banks have have really dropped the ball on this. So if your tenants are with smaller regional banks, they're much more successful and getting

207
00:33:28.920 --> 00:33:30.480
Rachel Wein: Responses and

208
00:33:31.620 --> 00:33:33.630
Rachel Wein: You know, I just hope it comes in time.

209
00:33:34.650 --> 00:33:39.300
stanley iezman: I'm sure there's somebody on this call. He's a banker and I will offend them by saying this, but

210
00:33:39.780 --> 00:33:45.660
stanley iezman: If you're a preferred customer of a bank, you're going to get money infinitely faster. I have a lot of people that I know who have gotten

211
00:33:46.200 --> 00:33:49.200
stanley iezman: And there's documents already signed, there have been approved.

212
00:33:49.740 --> 00:33:57.840
stanley iezman: But the preferred customers if you're not a preferred customer. It's going to be much more difficult to get through the system and to complete the paperwork and to be ultimately approved.

213
00:33:58.560 --> 00:34:06.420
stanley iezman: The but the bigger issue about PPP and I just want to caution all of us is that there's a lot of people who are applying for PPP

214
00:34:06.810 --> 00:34:19.710
stanley iezman: Who shouldn't be applying for PVP and they all be the better be relevant aware of the certifications that they're making and recognize that the government is going to as even early

215
00:34:20.430 --> 00:34:26.610
stanley iezman: This morning I restarted receiving notices from law firms, indicating that the federal government is going to expand.

216
00:34:27.540 --> 00:34:38.940
stanley iezman: Their, their enforcement of this because they suspected that there's a lot of people who are assigning these things and being approved that shouldn't be getting the the dollars. So there is a moral hazard associated with that as well.

217
00:34:38.970 --> 00:34:48.210
Richard Green: Yeah, can you be a little more specific about that. What sorts of things should you not have. If you're going to go for one of these lumps.

218
00:34:48.510 --> 00:34:55.200
stanley iezman: Well, I'm going to ask the question is, is why would somebody who's in the real estate business who's made a killing over the last five years to be applying for PPP

219
00:34:55.590 --> 00:35:04.590
stanley iezman: When they have the financial reserves to be able to to be able to handle the shortfall for a period of time. It's not that they're not paying, they can afford to pay their rent.

220
00:35:05.070 --> 00:35:11.430
stanley iezman: So why are they, why are they putting out there that they're going to terminate half their people and then keep them on payroll to get that loan.

221
00:35:13.020 --> 00:35:15.540
stanley iezman: That's just my personal opinion. All right.

222
00:35:16.380 --> 00:35:21.300
Richard Green: Any, any thoughts from the other panelists on stands warning.

223
00:35:22.050 --> 00:35:37.680
Rachel Wein: I mean, I think if you have a preferred banker, you're probably not a nail salon or a house here so on or, you know, this is who I'm talking about. So the institutional quality landlords are really holding the hands of small tenants to help them through this process because

224
00:35:38.070 --> 00:35:50.490
Rachel Wein: They don't know how to do this. So from a best practices standpoint, at this point, most of the larger, you know, read some larger private institutional companies have a you know coven

225
00:35:51.570 --> 00:36:01.080
Rachel Wein: Thing on their website go here. Here's a little video and they pivoted a number of employees from doing whatever they used to do and they're now tenant concierge

226
00:36:01.590 --> 00:36:10.650
Rachel Wein: On services and they are walking in some cases line by line walking through with those tenants and how to apply. But even with that support it's it's a struggle.

227
00:36:11.100 --> 00:36:21.720
Richard Green: Well, you know, send us a very revealing and this will be the subject. I'm sure of academic papers. Of course, this virus is going to spawn zillions of academic papers.

228
00:36:22.230 --> 00:36:36.630
Richard Green: But if you're a preferred client, it probably means you don't need the program as much as a non preferred client. So the rationing is going to the wrong people right now if what you're saying proves to be true.

229
00:36:37.410 --> 00:36:46.110
stanley iezman: Well, there are there are retail owners out there that are being completely decimated as Rachel was suggesting there's a lot of mom and pops it own shopping centers.

230
00:36:46.500 --> 00:36:54.510
stanley iezman: That are not collecting rent and they have debt that they have to pay off and that debt those property taxes and those debt payments still have to be made.

231
00:36:54.990 --> 00:37:07.650
stanley iezman: And to the extent that you're not making those payments, it's going to, it's going to be a problem. Now do our banks giving forbearance. And the answer is yes forbearance is out there. And we've heard a number of cases and talking to our

232
00:37:08.400 --> 00:37:14.310
stanley iezman: Number of our lenders, we have heard that they're giving forbearance on a regular basis. But that's only a temporary

233
00:37:14.880 --> 00:37:24.600
stanley iezman: Temporary alleviation of the problem. They'll give you two, three months of forbearance, but you're still going to have to amortize that interest back in to the Malone payment over time.

234
00:37:25.200 --> 00:37:34.710
stanley iezman: So we don't know what this is going to look like. And again, what Rachel is talking about is how quickly we get out of this. And now rapidly the small mom and pops are going to get there and be able to pay rent is open.

235
00:37:35.250 --> 00:37:48.450
Richard Green: So if you do the following exercise. Imagine alone that has six months of forbearance on it with a 4% coupon. And, um, you just have the

236
00:37:49.350 --> 00:38:01.020
Richard Green: loan balance the extra loan balance accrue at the end of the loan. So basically, you don't change the payment, it comes to at the time that alone is refinanced or the building is sold

237
00:38:01.800 --> 00:38:05.970
Richard Green: What happens to the present value of that loan is a trump spy in the neighborhood of 2%

238
00:38:06.780 --> 00:38:13.260
Richard Green: And it's one of the nice things about mortgages is you know what the cash flows are supposed to be you know what discount rate you're supposed to use

239
00:38:13.620 --> 00:38:26.970
Richard Green: Until you really can get analytically what the cost of that would be. And in light of the fact that the economy is going to shrink by something like 30% for a quarter of a 2% haircut doesn't seem all that bad to me.

240
00:38:27.450 --> 00:38:33.090
stanley iezman: Know when you're talking about you're talking about refinancing. You better start thinking about the fact that you've got a value divination.

241
00:38:33.480 --> 00:38:36.630
stanley iezman: That may exist as a result of what is going on today so

242
00:38:36.900 --> 00:38:37.320
stanley iezman: What is the

243
00:38:37.650 --> 00:38:39.150
Rachel Wein: Value anymore, Stan.

244
00:38:40.590 --> 00:38:41.400
Rachel Wein: Values anymore.

245
00:38:43.560 --> 00:38:54.750
stanley iezman: We are we, I don't know what a cap rate is going to be when when the tenants start paying rent and I don't know what discount rates are going to be. And I don't know where the resets going to be, but I can assure you that there is a recent yeah

246
00:38:55.650 --> 00:39:06.660
Richard Green: So I well it, it gets you a couple of points that I wanted to. So first of all, I just Rachel's comment about kicking the can down the road. I think that used to be a pejorative

247
00:39:07.260 --> 00:39:21.390
Richard Green: But kicking the can is what saved commercial real estate in the global financial crisis extended and pretend actually worked pretty well and to Stanley's point the recuperation of values and the aftermath of that was

248
00:39:21.390 --> 00:39:29.700
Richard Green: quite rapid on the commercial side. Now this is a very different kind of things. So who knows. But at least there's some precedent there.

249
00:39:30.720 --> 00:39:41.220
Richard Green: But I was going to on the whole issue of refinance. How much is this going to be an issue that loans are coming due and they're going to need to be refinanced when the next year or two.

250
00:39:41.640 --> 00:39:51.990
Richard Green: And we aren't going to know what LTV is for a while. How much does this worry and I'll again leave that question open to any of our panelists.

251
00:39:52.320 --> 00:39:53.520
stanley iezman: To me, it's an opportunity

252
00:39:56.640 --> 00:40:03.780
stanley iezman: It's an opportunity for rescue capital. I've been sitting on the sidelines right now looking for opportunity that's going to be the rescue capital opportunity.

253
00:40:06.060 --> 00:40:19.410
Rachel Wein: It's a great time to be in grocery retail. I mean for our grocery clients that are, you know, migrating to online to have this opportunity for people to use online. Click and Collect and delivery grocery for the first time.

254
00:40:20.310 --> 00:40:27.180
Rachel Wein: It's really outstanding because if you try Instacart or Kroger pickup or in your area, most of you would be Ralph

255
00:40:27.690 --> 00:40:33.870
Rachel Wein: If you try to three months ago and you didn't get just the right avocado. You were pretty upset and now you're just thrilled to get anything so

256
00:40:34.140 --> 00:40:42.840
Rachel Wein: Um, and now they're printing money because people need groceries and they'll be able to invest in their macro and micro distribution for online so

257
00:40:43.620 --> 00:40:49.770
Dave Dollinger: You know, I just want to say one thing. A lot of people have been saying, talk to your lenders and get forbearance and all these issues.

258
00:40:50.880 --> 00:41:01.650
Dave Dollinger: And I would say you don't really want to do that. He not if you really want to be in this business in the long term and do deals in the future. And so I've never done it and I don't plan to do it.

259
00:41:02.400 --> 00:41:07.590
Dave Dollinger: So unless you own that single tenant building it's your only asset and it's going to put you under

260
00:41:07.920 --> 00:41:22.230
Dave Dollinger: I don't recommend asking any lender for for barons, because they remember it, they'll remember in 234 years when you come back, they will want to make it alone. So I don't think that's a strategy really for landlords, unless you're really desperate to try that.

261
00:41:22.260 --> 00:41:25.560
Richard Green: Well, if they have your collections are 55% of normal

262
00:41:26.250 --> 00:41:31.500
Richard Green: And your debt cover is 1.25 your sort of heavier hand forest right

263
00:41:31.830 --> 00:41:34.020
Dave Dollinger: If it's if it's your only property.

264
00:41:34.440 --> 00:41:42.240
Dave Dollinger: But if you have multiple properties and other source of income. I mean, I have a single tenant la fitness and they're not paying and you know I paid the mortgage. This month I didn't say a word.

265
00:41:42.540 --> 00:41:48.180
Dave Dollinger: Because you go back and you make the change. Or I asked for it. They actually called me and asked if I want to do something.

266
00:41:48.360 --> 00:42:01.440
Dave Dollinger: And I said, no, because the reality is, they'll remember that in two years and three years when you go to borrow the money again for something else. So it depends on your situation, obviously, but I would definitely say do not, if you could afford it. I wouldn't do it.

267
00:42:02.040 --> 00:42:13.740
Rachel Wein: I don't think we're at the end, yet of retailers that haven't paid, but still might pay. I think we still have some time there been retailers that have been shamed into paying and we'll see what not

268
00:42:14.250 --> 00:42:24.120
Rachel Wein: A fitness retailer is probably not going to pay, but there are going to be some apparel retailers. I think there's some, you know, pet and other retailers that will end up paying some

269
00:42:24.540 --> 00:42:30.810
Dave Dollinger: Well Alta wrote a letter saying they weren't going to pay anybody. Then they wrote a letter back saying, Okay, now we're going to pay the waiver late fee so

270
00:42:31.170 --> 00:42:32.100
Dave Dollinger: I think some of these are

271
00:42:32.310 --> 00:42:33.540
Dave Dollinger: tenants are figuring it out.

272
00:42:34.740 --> 00:42:43.080
stanley iezman: One of the comments I didn't want to make about retail is that clearly the the retailers that have been most impacted or not omni channel directed. I mean, when your omni channel.

273
00:42:43.500 --> 00:42:52.680
stanley iezman: And you have the ability to be able to work in an e commerce environment. And the question is really going to be, we only focus on grocery anchored shopping centers and what we're talking about internally.

274
00:42:53.040 --> 00:43:02.190
stanley iezman: Is how do you deal with the mom and pop that is not omni channel and will be impacted dramatically as a result of this, and we're trying to figure out how we create value going forward.

275
00:43:02.460 --> 00:43:07.530
stanley iezman: With bringing in other tenants that have different distribution methods to be able to provide for those

276
00:43:07.980 --> 00:43:12.690
stanley iezman: For the rent in those smaller spaces. So I don't know what that's going to look like. But it's something we're thinking about

277
00:43:14.190 --> 00:43:27.900
Richard Green: So I do want to remind people that if you want to ask a question of the panel please send an email to Lusk CTR all one word Liu SK ctr@usc.edu

278
00:43:31.980 --> 00:43:33.090
stanley iezman: I have a question for Rachel.

279
00:43:33.540 --> 00:43:37.920
stanley iezman: Yeah, so if I can ask the foot traffic is down.

280
00:43:37.920 --> 00:43:39.150
stanley iezman: Dramatically in retail

281
00:43:40.170 --> 00:43:42.600
stanley iezman: Yet grocery sales are up significantly

282
00:43:43.200 --> 00:43:47.760
stanley iezman: So I'm trying to figure out if Grocery. Grocery traffic's down by 56%

283
00:43:48.840 --> 00:43:54.960
stanley iezman: Which is just walk in traffic. So how is that being made up in e commerce, we're

284
00:43:55.260 --> 00:43:56.550
Rachel Wein: Looking at the place or

285
00:43:56.610 --> 00:43:58.410
stanley iezman: An idea of the police or a idea.

286
00:43:58.920 --> 00:44:08.250
Rachel Wein: I don't, um, it's supposedly covers the vast majority of these grocery retailers. I mean basket sizes is the simple answer.

287
00:44:09.330 --> 00:44:18.660
Rachel Wein: So there's it's truly only measuring a person walks into the door so you end up with Instacart orders were a single

288
00:44:19.170 --> 00:44:30.030
Rachel Wein: shopper a shopping multiple orders. You also have folks that are leaving their house once a week that are going and doing a huge shop where they used to go 234 times on, but yes.

289
00:44:30.630 --> 00:44:37.590
Rachel Wein: There's also a large increase in online. I don't know how to share my screen. But in in China.

290
00:44:38.250 --> 00:44:55.620
Rachel Wein: In China in the first 10 days of February, there is a 215% increase in online grocery sales. I'm a JD com so I think we're probably seeing something similar to that we don't yet have numbers on that though. So I think it's a combination of all online and larger basket sizes.

291
00:44:57.330 --> 00:45:12.180
Richard Green: So Rachel, I want to follow up on a comment that Stan made which was about the number of retailers who are on their way out anyway um what share, would you put that at or you think it's small. Do you think it's

292
00:45:13.950 --> 00:45:24.780
Richard Green: I'll let you answer the question however you like. But given them what Stan asked and you know the market better than the rest of us. What, what would you say, Who do you whichever you think don't come back.

293
00:45:25.770 --> 00:45:41.700
Rachel Wein: So, um, you know, if it's just a mom and pop nail salon hair salon. I mean, so those folks are going to release travel and, you know, I think we could see 20 30% closures permanent it's going to really depend on how their

294
00:45:42.660 --> 00:45:53.970
Rachel Wein: Their owners treating them in terms of roles and abatements, and you know, walking them through the different services that are available to them and PPP and whatnot. Um,

295
00:45:54.690 --> 00:46:01.200
Rachel Wein: I think for the larger tenants. It's going to all depend on balance sheet. I mean, this is going to be the same thing if you would have asked me to. Who are the

296
00:46:01.740 --> 00:46:13.260
Rachel Wein: Retailers that I should bet on, you know, where would I want to, you know, invest my capital for for my retailer. I mean, it's going to be the folks that have paid attention and invested well and saved up for a rainy day and

297
00:46:14.640 --> 00:46:29.160
Rachel Wein: You know, the blue chip names. We all know I'm where I am a little bit concerned is I think we're going to see a lot of closures and apparel, it won't be a surprise that many of the department stores will close and not reopen

298
00:46:29.580 --> 00:46:39.150
Rachel Wein: And that is typically good for the off price market. I think there is a scenario where if we have a flood of apparel in the next

299
00:46:39.570 --> 00:46:46.890
Rachel Wein: three to nine months. At first the off price guys get to load up on inventory and then at some point, you end up with

300
00:46:47.190 --> 00:46:57.810
Rachel Wein: Just a glut. So it's possible that even in a recessionary environment. If it's too bad we may end up with it being negative for the off price book. So I do have some concerns there.

301
00:46:59.130 --> 00:47:01.920
Rachel Wein: And then you know the category killers and how many do we need right

302
00:47:02.310 --> 00:47:03.030
stanley iezman: Yeah yeah

303
00:47:03.840 --> 00:47:09.780
stanley iezman: I was gonna just make a comment about the the retailers, the big the balance sheet is really critical as Rachel was talking about.

304
00:47:10.530 --> 00:47:18.930
stanley iezman: Nordstrom just came out with a $600 million bond offering, which was not 8.75% which certain shows you what the risk factor is there.

305
00:47:19.500 --> 00:47:23.070
stanley iezman: But that doesn't get a lot of money to carry that for a very long period of time.

306
00:47:23.580 --> 00:47:38.100
stanley iezman: That's I from what I'm hearing. That's about a year's worth of cash to be able to operate the business. So there's a lot of. There's a lot of hazard out there that we all have to look at when we look at these firms and how rapidly we come out of this.

307
00:47:38.850 --> 00:47:56.370
Rachel Wein: Yeah, there will be a lot of balls that are no longer malls. I mean, I don't know how many years ago, I would have thought, oh, well, we'll still need $500 and now it's me might be two or 300 miles. Right. But, um, you know, there's a lot of opportunity where you used to have.

308
00:47:57.600 --> 00:48:11.160
Rachel Wein: You know the spheres and you got the series back and you were deciding between a Target and Walmart and you decided on one and you figured out, well, maybe in three or four years. I'll get that Macy's box back when I get the basis. So there's still some opportunity.

309
00:48:12.120 --> 00:48:20.220
Richard Green: So what I what I was thinking, though, is like the nail salons. He had the specific nail salons may go out of business.

310
00:48:20.790 --> 00:48:25.800
Richard Green: But there's still going to be a demand for people having their nails done when we come out of it. So it'll just be a different

311
00:48:26.370 --> 00:48:35.160
Richard Green: Nail Salon person who takes up that space. So it's hard for me to see how those sorts of services, you may have a lot of businesses.

312
00:48:35.730 --> 00:48:47.100
Richard Green: Go under but the service is still will come back and be there, whereas other kinds of stuff. They like dry goods. One could imagine that that space will never be used for that purpose. Again, yeah.

313
00:48:47.160 --> 00:48:48.990
Rachel Wein: I mean, we're probably over restaurant and

314
00:48:50.190 --> 00:49:01.980
Rachel Wein: You know, we were over retail period. But I think there's just been so much reliance on on restaurants to build the gap where we lost other tenants over the last 10 years and that's gonna be that's gonna be really tough, but right

315
00:49:02.010 --> 00:49:11.520
Richard Green: Right now, boys mystified me anyway because you know the tea is on restaurants are very expensive and they go out of business, on average, every two and a half years.

316
00:49:12.480 --> 00:49:15.240
Rachel Wein: So we do have a number for you as of

317
00:49:17.040 --> 00:49:19.530
Rachel Wein: Yesterday at 11am Arizona time

318
00:49:20.550 --> 00:49:27.840
Rachel Wein: The there were 61% of all US retail stores were closed it was 260,000 stores for

319
00:49:29.310 --> 00:49:32.220
Rachel Wein: 4797 million square feet.

320
00:49:33.240 --> 00:49:35.820
Richard Green: So that second number again please. How many million

321
00:49:36.180 --> 00:49:38.970
Rachel Wein: Know what I'm gonna do. I am going to figure out how to share my screen.

322
00:49:39.150 --> 00:49:39.450
Yeah.

323
00:49:44.280 --> 00:49:45.450
Richard Green: There you go.

324
00:49:45.540 --> 00:49:46.260
You're here.

325
00:49:47.970 --> 00:49:48.330
stanley iezman: I'm

326
00:49:48.420 --> 00:49:49.200
Richard Green: Well, thank you.

327
00:49:50.460 --> 00:49:57.240
Rachel Wein: Hey, yeah. And this is what we have for retail sales growth and forecasts as of yesterday.

328
00:49:58.470 --> 00:49:59.850
Rachel Wein: I'll switch it back to the unknown.

329
00:50:00.060 --> 00:50:02.340
Richard Green: Right. Um,

330
00:50:02.640 --> 00:50:03.540
stanley iezman: That's a great slide.

331
00:50:03.810 --> 00:50:08.490
Richard Green: That is a great slide. Hello, four and 5 million square feet. Sounds small to me.

332
00:50:10.410 --> 00:50:11.490
Richard Green: Where's that meters.

333
00:50:14.100 --> 00:50:14.970
Rachel Wein: Million zillion

334
00:50:15.150 --> 00:50:23.070
Richard Green: Oh, it's a god it's billion square feet. Got it, got it now. That makes sense to me. All right. Yeah. I thought you said million before. That's why I was coming.

335
00:50:23.640 --> 00:50:24.330
Richard Green: From. Okay, great.

336
00:50:24.360 --> 00:50:26.160
Rachel Wein: Heart number number to say out loud.

337
00:50:26.940 --> 00:50:31.860
Richard Green: Yeah, thank you for that. I'm a question from Patrick jargon. I'm

338
00:50:33.390 --> 00:50:41.580
Richard Green: Saying homeowner took effect when we have 1000 cases per day, nothing has changed much the beginning of the march no effect seen no meaningful therapies.

339
00:50:42.090 --> 00:50:47.850
Richard Green: I'm curious to see who in your panel thinks there will be we will still be in the situation for the next 10 to 18 months.

340
00:50:48.150 --> 00:50:57.210
Richard Green: And what we'll do the student price per square foot for retail an office in the long run, say, two to three years from now. So that's a put you guys on the spot. Kind of question if ever I heard one.

341
00:50:58.920 --> 00:50:59.310
stanley iezman: Well,

342
00:51:00.720 --> 00:51:10.890
stanley iezman: Do so that's the big debate that we're, we've been having throughout the country over the last two weeks is what is the value of life versus what is the value of the economy.

343
00:51:11.460 --> 00:51:18.660
stanley iezman: And I'm going to suggest that the majority of people are going to start defaulting. And by the way, I'm not a Republican.

344
00:51:19.530 --> 00:51:28.410
stanley iezman: I think the people are going to start defaulting to figure out how to open this up faster in a way that get people out of their homes and being able to start the economy.

345
00:51:29.490 --> 00:51:36.570
stanley iezman: That's my prediction and they'll, they'll just be there'll be there'll be social standards that are going to be adjusted as we work towards a vaccine.

346
00:51:38.760 --> 00:51:46.470
Rachel Wein: I would say. Similarly, I think we will start to relax and I think I mentioned this earlier. I think world start getting out of our homes in June.

347
00:51:46.920 --> 00:51:56.520
Rachel Wein: I would be shocked if I went to an industry deal making event A for the fall of 2021

348
00:51:57.300 --> 00:52:09.630
Rachel Wein: I think it's going to be hard to have large events and just for people to feel like they're comfortable going and for larger corporations to be willing to send their teams, especially now that folks are pretty comfortable with video

349
00:52:10.770 --> 00:52:18.000
Rachel Wein: Yeah, as someone in professional services, I will fly somewhere. But I thought about you. When's the next time, I'm going to fly to see people in New York. Well, none of them are in New York.

350
00:52:18.540 --> 00:52:24.360
Rachel Wein: When are they going to be back in New York, and I've been back in New York before September, so I'm not gonna go anywhere where am I going to go

351
00:52:26.250 --> 00:52:30.390
Richard Green: David, that raises a very interesting issue in terms of bringing people back to the office.

352
00:52:30.780 --> 00:52:36.990
stanley iezman: Because one of the questions is going to be this is that, how are you going to deal with the anxiety of people who feel uncomfortable coming back to work.

353
00:52:37.440 --> 00:52:49.830
stanley iezman: And and driving and taking transportation and being around other people that it's a new area of law that we're going to have to think about because it's probably a disability that would fall under ADA that you'd have to give accommodation for

354
00:52:49.860 --> 00:52:55.890
stanley iezman: So we're back. We're dealing with a multiplicity of different issues, as we talked about this.

355
00:52:56.340 --> 00:53:12.600
Richard Green: Well along those lines of new paper came out today by an MIT professor named Greg Harris, who is traced the expansion of covert in New York City at the subway system and he makes a very compelling case, when you look at the density of turnstile use it correlates incredibly strongly

356
00:53:13.170 --> 00:53:20.250
Richard Green: The density of the incidence of covert in New York City. And of course, New York, without people being comfortable using the subway.

357
00:53:20.910 --> 00:53:39.810
Richard Green: Is a completely different and perhaps non competitive city. And so, that to me is a pretty profound possibility that New York for a long time does not is not a center of commerce, because people are afraid to use the principal means of transportation for getting around it.

358
00:53:40.980 --> 00:53:45.150
Richard Green: But I do want to your debut. Any thoughts on where we're going in the next 1018 months.

359
00:53:45.900 --> 00:53:46.740
Dave Dollinger: I have no idea.

360
00:53:48.210 --> 00:53:48.750
Dave Dollinger: No idea.

361
00:53:49.560 --> 00:53:58.590
Richard Green: That is honest answer is one click. I think give at the moment. I'm a question from Odessa Riley. This is today of

362
00:54:00.150 --> 00:54:12.930
Richard Green: Banks, he says. Always have long memories when it comes to our, our shortcomings but expect support from the market when they struggle and if the majority of retail owners or mom and pops, they'd be paying rent at the expense of their long term sustainability.

363
00:54:15.750 --> 00:54:18.600
Dave Dollinger: So was that a question for me for banks are for the retailer's

364
00:54:18.750 --> 00:54:20.640
Richard Green: Well, I think it's for the retailers. Yeah.

365
00:54:22.110 --> 00:54:22.890
Dave Dollinger: Um,

366
00:54:24.180 --> 00:54:24.660
Dave Dollinger: Well,

367
00:54:25.620 --> 00:54:34.710
Dave Dollinger: We pay our mortgage, I need to collect the rent. I mean, we need to negotiate with the retailers to try to keep me in business, too. So it's a it's a given take to given take

368
00:54:38.550 --> 00:54:49.290
Richard Green: So, and it just a comment from Craig borstein oftentimes telling your lender that you cannot pay triggers a default on your loan. Just, just the act of doing that, um,

369
00:54:51.090 --> 00:54:54.150
Richard Green: Do we have any more questions from the floor.

370
00:54:55.050 --> 00:55:03.090
stanley iezman: I just wanted since we're talking about lenders and lisas. I just want to remind everybody that if you weren't going if you have debt.

371
00:55:04.200 --> 00:55:15.060
stanley iezman: Make sure that your debt covenants allow you to make changes to your leases without approval of the landlord, otherwise you may trigger a recourse carve out

372
00:55:15.330 --> 00:55:17.280
Richard Green: You mean without approval of the lender.

373
00:55:17.340 --> 00:55:25.080
stanley iezman: Without approval lender. So you've got to be. You've got to read them your loan docs very carefully in terms of what lease approvals that the lender has to sign off on

374
00:55:26.520 --> 00:55:28.560
stanley iezman: It's a free fall. That could be very dangerous.

375
00:55:28.650 --> 00:55:30.240
Richard Green: Yeah, yeah, Rachel.

376
00:55:31.500 --> 00:55:35.070
Rachel Wein: I don't want along the lines of what Dave was saying in dealing with your lender.

377
00:55:35.760 --> 00:55:40.620
Rachel Wein: Something that the retailers need to be aware of is sometimes they have their own covenants, so

378
00:55:41.040 --> 00:55:50.880
Rachel Wein: The number of the percentage or number of leases that they have the cannot be in default. So if enough of them don't pay and enough landlords default them, they will be in trouble so

379
00:55:51.360 --> 00:55:57.840
Rachel Wein: We'll just have to see how that plays out because there are a lot of landlords that are unwilling to default those larger tenants.

380
00:55:59.280 --> 00:56:07.770
Richard Green: So let's turn to a last words of wisdom from each of our three panelists, there's anything you want to say that you haven't gotten to say. So we'll start with Dave on this.

381
00:56:09.120 --> 00:56:16.440
Dave Dollinger: While I agree that I hope we allow the retail they'll merge those two together against some of these tenants and weekend which back against

382
00:56:17.520 --> 00:56:29.220
Dave Dollinger: The bullying and I going on from these credit tenants. Otherwise, it's kind of just hunker down and try to collect a week and collect and pay mortgages and let's hope things improve

383
00:56:30.750 --> 00:56:31.350
Richard Green: Ritual

384
00:56:31.860 --> 00:56:44.550
Rachel Wein: Would say the same way that the lenders have long memories I think owners will have long memories about their tenants and how they acted now and now will really be able to see where we have partners and where he does.

385
00:56:45.990 --> 00:56:48.540
Richard Green: So and Stanley, I

386
00:56:48.570 --> 00:56:56.340
stanley iezman: Know I just shared these the same comment though I. Our view is we have to work with our tenants as much as we possibly can. We don't want them to leave.

387
00:56:57.000 --> 00:57:02.790
stanley iezman: We're going to work through and try and look at each individual situation carefully to make sure that we're making the right decisions.

388
00:57:03.060 --> 00:57:15.840
stanley iezman: But we want to be proactive and in front of them and as Rachel is talking about help them navigate the process of getting PPP or the $10,000 special loan that is granted by the US, the SBA, which is really a grant

389
00:57:17.100 --> 00:57:18.540
stanley iezman: For a lot of these retailers, but

390
00:57:18.540 --> 00:57:23.100
stanley iezman: We want to help them succeed and to be able to survive because we know this is very damaging to them in their

391
00:57:23.100 --> 00:57:23.880
stanley iezman: personal lives.

392
00:57:25.200 --> 00:57:36.690
Richard Green: So with that, thank you panel, very much, for an enlightening and entertaining. Our. I just want to remind people of our next sessions next Monday, April 20 at 11am

393
00:57:37.140 --> 00:57:53.640
Richard Green: We have housing with IV Zelman and next Wednesday, April 22 vulnerabilities of the mortgage system. And with that, again, thank you all for joining us, we'll look forward to seeing you next week and stay healthy out there.

394
00:57:55.110 --> 00:57:56.160
Richard Green: Thank you, everybody.