By GREGORY J. WILCOX and DANA BARTHOLOMEW
Apartment dwellers will continue to get squeezed financially as rents are expected to increase up to 8 percent over the next two years across Southern California as vacancies shrink, according to a USC forecast released Tuesday.
Population pressure and low construction rates could cause Inland Empire rents to increase at an even higher rate.
Southern California's strong economy, increasing population and shortage of new product will keep exerting upward pressure on rents, according to the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast prepared by the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate.color>
The report focused on Los Angeles and Orange counties and the Inland Empire.
Researchers found that last year monthly rents averaged $1,300 in Los Angeles County, $1,260 in Orange County and $900 in the Inland Empire, which consists of Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
Raphael Bostic, the forecast's directorcolor>, said that young singles coming into the region want less expensive efficiency units while larger immigrant families favor three-bedroom apartments.
"I think people know what the solution is. We have to add more units," he said.
Bostic notes that cities need to be more aggressive about allowing higher density projects in urban areas, but neighbors often reject this approach.
While apartment construction is on the upswing, it remains well below the levels of the booming 1980s. For example, in 1986 builders pulled permits for 52,969 units in Los Angeles County. Last year they pulled permits for 11,096 units.
Not surprisingly, Vacancy rates are at about 4 percent in both Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire and are not expected to move up.
"At 4 percent, that falls well within most (building owners) level of saying it's at full occupancy," Bostic said.
The forecast breakdown:
-- In the big Los Angeles County market, rents are expected to increase slightly less than 6 percent this year, then jump 7 percent in 2005 when average rents will $1,400 month. Submarkets with significant populations of immigrants and lower-income renters such as East Los Angeles, the San Gabriel Valley, Long Beach and Central Los Angeles will see higher occupancy and strong rent growth through 2005.
-- As has been the case for the past five years, the economies of Riverside and San Bernardino counties will outperform Los Angeles and Orange County. That will help push Inland Empire rents up by as much as 8.5 percent in the next two years, the forecast said.
-- The Orange County apartment market will also continue growing, with the occupancy rate hitting 97 percent by the end of next year. Rents this year are expected to increase 6 percent the average 9 percent, one of the biggest gains in the nation, by 2005.
The lack of affordable housing has become a hot issue with advocates for the poor, as well as state and local elected officials.
On Tuesday, advocates for the poor held a press conference in Pacoima to call on the city of Los Angeles to increase access to affordable housing for low-income families.
At issue was a family of six who were evicted Friday from a backyard trailer with a substandard sewage system. The family, whose father is a farm laborer, was rendered homeless.
"We want to do something, we want the city council to pass a new law, with inclusionary zoning, to construct a (sufficient) amount of low-income houses." said Guadelupe Gonzalez, a tenant advocate for ACORN, otherwise known as the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now.
This month, an attorney for Neighborhood Legal Services in Pacoima declared a countywide crisis in creating and maintaining safe and affordable housing for low-rental tenants.
State Sen. Richard Alarcon hosted a tenants rights forum in North Hollywood after introducing a bill requiring housing inspectors to publicly list slumlords.
This summer, city officials say they will likely vote on a proposal for inclusionary zoning, which will require developers to include a minimum number of units for low-income families.
The proposal is supported by City Council President Alex Padilla and housing committee chairman Councilman Eric Garcetti.