Bearish real estate economist Christopher Thornberg, who says the Southern California housing market is a bubble beginning to pop, has left UCLA Anderson Forecast to strike out on his own. Thornberg, 38, will continue to teach economics at UCLA but will no longer be part of the quarterly Anderson Forecast on the economies of California and the nation. USC forecaster Dolores Conway remains more optimistic even though the inventory of unsold houses is growing and sellers are making price concessions to close deals. "There is still a strong demand for housing, especially in Southern California," said Conway, director of the school's Casden Real Estate Economics Forecasting Project. "Everything we see is consistent with a soft landing." Thornberg, whose departure was first reported on the website LA Observed, insists that the real estate market is dangerously puffed up. "Look at what your house was valued at three years ago and what it is now. Is it really worth 70% more? The answer is no," he said. "There is no way you can justify the math."
August 15, 2006