Hanley Wood's figures differ from those provided by other market research firms in that they track the opening of sales escrows, while others like DataQuick Information Systems tracks closed escrow figures. Hanley Wood's figures may be early indicators of statistics likely to come out several months from now because new home escrows can last several months since buyers often purchase their residence before or as they're being built.
Hanley Wood's figures on sales that closed in April in Orange County show a decline of 29 percent from the year before, similar to what DataQuick reported earlier.
Duffy believes that condo sales are down because it's easier to overbuild condos than single-family homes and also because speculators may prefer condos to houses.
"Condos are the first to fall in a market decline," he said.
Hanley Wood's April figures confirmed a comment made Thursday that sales of new homes appear to be stabilizing.
"Sales continue to drop everywhere but Orange County," Douglas Neff , president of the residential development financing firm, IHP Capital Partners, said Thursday night at a briefing sponsored by the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
While single-family home sales are rising here, they fell 39 percent in California as a whole, Hanley Wood's figures show. Condo sales contracts fell 44 percent.