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Casden Forecast Predicts Extended Downturn

January 5, 2009

... Although speakers tried to put a bit of a positive spin on the current economic condition during the University of Southern California's Casden Office and Industrial Market Forecast, the current environment did not give them much to work with. "The only good news is that 'frugal' is in," said Delores Conway, director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. "People are looking at ways to tighten their budgets."... ... On a more optimistic note, Conway said that oil prices dropped from $147 per barrel in mid-2008 to less than $40 per barrel in December 2008. Interest rates also have remained low and the U.S. Federal Reserve made another cut in December. The Fed, U.S. Treasury and Congress also are working on another stimulus package to bolster the economy, Conway said. But these positive signs don't detract from the fact that gross domestic product growth turned negative during third-quarter 2008, hitting negative 0.5 percent, and global growth is slowing, Conway said. "There is plenty of bad news," Conway said. "We expect the downturn to continue. We expect to see some pick up later in 2009."...