Dr. Delores Conway, director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, is quoted in the June 15, 2009 edition of the California Real Estate Journal
Reverse Migration Factors into Rising Class C Vacancies
California Real Estate Journal
By Keeley Webster
...California's shadow economy may be compounding the effects of the shadow rental market to put added pressure on normally recession-resistant Class C apartments. Some disagreement exists among researchers as to whether Latino immigrants have been returning to their country of origin over the past two years, causing increased vacancies in the Class C apartments often...
..."One thing I have noticed is that the vacancy rates in Class C apartments have been picking up and demand has gone down," said Delores Conway, director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast at the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate. "From anecdotal evidence, it appears that some of that is due to immigrants either doubling up or returning to their country of origin."
The entire apartment market in Southern California has continued to decline since the Casden Forecast released its multifamily forecast in April, Conway said.
During the forecast,Conway reported that rents had declined by 3.8 percent by the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis in Los Angeles. Preliminary figures are showing that rents will be down by 5.7 percent in second quarter on a year-over-year basis, Conway said. "Net absorption is negative and vacancies are rising," Conway said. "The occupancy rate in Los Angeles has remained flat at 92.6 percent, according to preliminary figures for the second quarter, but it was 97 percent a year ago..."
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June 15, 2009