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Improving Cost and Demand Forecasting for Transportation Infrastructure.

Bent Flyvbjerg of Aalborg University in Denmark conducted the first systematic study of infrastructure megaprojects. He found that large transportation projects typically cost more and take longer to complete than initially proposed. Perhaps more significantly, he also found that they significantly under-delivered on their expected benefits, namely ridership in the case of transit and usage in highway, bridge, and tunnel projects were significantly less than projected. In this lecture, sponsored by the Keston Institute for Infrastructure and METRANS, he will describe his research and present what he believes to be a more accurate and unbiased method of demand forecasting. This is especially topical as Los Angeles contemplates a Red Line extension to Santa Monica, high-speed rail is proposed between San Francisco and Los Angeles, and other light and heavy rail transit projects are proposed throughout California.

Wednesday, February 8, 2006
12:30 p.m. – 1:30 p.m.
Ralph and Goldy Lewis Hall
Room 215
USC Campus