Commercial Real Esate Market Updates and Overview

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Rachel Wein: To recap, don't paint retail all with a broad brush the hurt is primarily focused in the mall sector, the grocery sector is just exploding so online e commerce for grocery is

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Rachel Wein: beyond anyone's wildest expectations for adoption year over year quarterly increases.

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Rachel Wein: 215% across the board with Instacart being 497% of Amazon fresh 258% up

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Rachel Wein: You want to know where people are going to be going as they leave some of these mall retailers, it's going to be to the big box sector.

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Rachel Wein: Largely Walmart and target will be the beneficiaries of of the losses in the department store space with one

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Rachel Wein: Survey back from JC Penney shoppers asking, Where will you likely shop if your local JC Penney's closes a third of them saying target a third of them saying, Walmart.

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Rachel Wein: And then a brief recap on stores that are open versus closed when we spoke last at the height of retail closures 61% of retail stores in the US were closed representing

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Rachel Wein: 55 square feet of stores and that was April 14 FRIDAY, APRIL 14

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Rachel Wein: We are now, as of last Friday at 24% of retail stores closed representing 22% of square footage and then those are stories that are completely closed and stores that are open with significant restrictions.

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Rachel Wein: Represent 21% of stores and equally 21% of square footage. So that would be your basic retail update

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Richard Green: So I just on the response about target versus Walmart, given that target is smaller than Walmart. That means proportionately target will do even better than Walmart if people do what they say they're going to do, is that correct

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Rachel Wein: Yeah. What's interesting about target as well as a lot of their profitability comes from the more discretionary items and those were significantly down in the first

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Rachel Wein: Month. I want to say this was, you know, March they had 50% increases in their grocery and then they had 50% decreases in and apparel and soft goods.

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Rachel Wein: And I'd have to look back at the numbers, but what's what's really fantastic for target right now is the the online online purchase fulfilled by store so their pickup drive up and shipped delivery is up substantially shift is up 300% drive up is up 40% and it's it's really a soothing.

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Rachel Wein: 40% of people that used to drive up use it for the first time. So, and if you haven't used target drive up. It is fantastic but there comes sales targets calm sales Q1 of 11% comp digital sales up 141% and same day up 278%

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Rachel Wein: It's outrageous.

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Richard Green: And so there's sort of this sort of natural, natural experiment going on is is places opening at different times. Are you seeing that translate into retail sales so

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Richard Green: So Florida opening earlier. Are you seeing a substantial pickup and and what I mean by that is brick and mortar sales relative to the places that are closed.

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Rachel Wein: So, you know, it's a bit of a mixed bag because there's certainly some locations where things are open and yes Florida is largely open

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Rachel Wein: They're still there are folks that still don't feel comfortable going to stores and, you know, I think the last time we spoke Simon had just announced that they were going to open up 50% of their malls. Bye bye. May one

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Rachel Wein: Was unclear is how many of the stores within those malls are open and and it is primarily local stores that are open and operating and the national chains and the higher end chains had been

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Rachel Wein: Opening on a much lower rate. I will say one encouraging bit of information is that TJ Maxx announced that they're year over a year. Excuse me, weekly, this week versus like the same week last year was up.

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Rachel Wein: Was up like their sales were up year over year for that one week when they had the opening. So there is some pent up demand in the apparel space which apparel has just been

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Rachel Wein: Really crushed and something else I mentioned just before we wrap retail would be that 14 stores 14 change represent 25% of all mall space. I can actually, I can share this image if you

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Rachel Wein: Share it here.

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Rachel Wein: 14 stores equal

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Rachel Wein: Equal 25% of them all space. And if you see here these first three Macy's JC Penney and Diller, it's Adam up and it's about 15%. So this is really where the heart lives in

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Rachel Wein: In the retail sector right now. So I just want to encourage folks grocery retail is. It's fantastic. I mean, there, there are certainly we see the publicly traded rates and their rent.

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Rachel Wein: recoveries but even some of the private owners folks that we work with are in the 85 80%

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Rachel Wein: You know the nail salon that wasn't open isn't paying a Chinese restaurant that isn't open isn't paying, but a lot of the other folks are and I just show you a visual here.

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Rachel Wein: The numbers that I mentioned this is this is the latest update from last Friday, which shows the number of stores that are still closed again that's you know that down from the high of about 60% that was closed. A couple months ago.

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Rachel Wein: I can stop sharing

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Richard Green: Great, Rachel. Thank you very much. Let's move on to industrial and by the way, we will take questions and please type them into the Q AMP a box and I see we have one, but I'm going to hold off until

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Richard Green: We go through all four of our presenters. I will do my best to get all of the questions out to the panelists. Before we wrap at noon today. So, Lisa. Tell us about industrial

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Lisa Reddy: Yeah, thanks for having me today. Nice to see everybody in terms of industrial, you know, April, when everything came to a head. We had an influx of rent relief requests.

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Lisa Reddy: You know, our total requests were about 4.3% of our gross annual rent, but we ended up, you know, dividing the request and just, you know, subcategories.

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Lisa Reddy: Really focus on the on the customer who needed it the most, you know, the small mom and pop, not just the opportunities opportunistic asked

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Lisa Reddy: And this month, actually, we've seen a real shift in slowdown of those requests. So globally 95% of our customers are open at least partially operating. So it seems like it's been a real improvement from one month to the next.

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Lisa Reddy: In terms of the industrial sector. We're also seeing a real shift in what our customers are looking for. There's been a real

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Lisa Reddy: Need for immediate inventory because of the bulk of, you know, of consumer goods and inventory that has been in the supply chain so

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Lisa Reddy: We've seen a need for racked warehouses for cold storage, because the grocery food and beverage. You know, they have been

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Lisa Reddy: Kind of, you know, lagging in terms of their econ build up but now with the demand of Stan stay at home. They're real ramp up for them to find space immediately and they're working to improve district supply chain. And it's been interesting to see.

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Lisa Reddy: We've also seen an uptick in construction and home improvement. Good. So people staying at home, wanting to better their house, etc. So the industries that we've seen that have been hurting obviously have been the auto

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Lisa Reddy: The, you know, retailers who only have the supply chain focused on retail

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Lisa Reddy: We think that diversification of the supply chain is really what's going to carry these industrial users to the next level. When we start the recovery phase. So we just anticipate that the customers who have the devices diversified supply chain and are focusing on the

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Lisa Reddy: Evolution of E com

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Lisa Reddy: Are going to be the ones who come out the strongest

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Richard Green: So let me let me follow up on your comments on the supply chain and David out this morning I'll ask you this question, too. And we come around to you, but

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Richard Green: Given the deterioration relationships with the relationship with China. Is that going to have a big influence on particularly your piece of

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Richard Green: Supply chain and are you thinking about how that's going to change your peace and what What strategies are you using in order to deal with that or do you think it's just not going to be that big a deal.

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Lisa Reddy: I think already you know I think already industrial transportation providers industrial manufacturers.

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Lisa Reddy: I think, you know, since the end of 2019 when all of this was, you know, starting to come to a head. I think they've already been looking at diversifying

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Lisa Reddy: Where their products are sourced where they're doing manufacturing. So I think it's just going to add an element to the industrial sector that's kind of already been in the works. I don't anticipate it you know having a huge, you know, throwing a wrench in the in the chain.

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Richard Green: Okay, so you don't see, I guess, particularly this week with China cracking down on Hong Kong.

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Richard Green: Secretary state talking about sent new sanctions that that relationship is going to deteriorate further and it seems to me yet. I mean, for example, we know that stuff is living in

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Richard Green: China, but a wholesale move all the stuff. The Chinese has been doing would be, it would be difficult to make that pivot over night. Um, but it sounds like from what you're seeing if it was because it was heading in that direction. It's really not affecting your business, very much.

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Lisa Reddy: Right. I mean, we've actually seen. It's interesting. We've seen an increase demand.

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Lisa Reddy: This month in, you know, like I mentioned the need for immediate immediate

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Lisa Reddy: Space, because they already have our customers already have a buildup of this inventory and many of the customers that I talked to over the past 35 you know 30 to 45 days.

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Lisa Reddy: The ones who have been able to weather the storm have already had a diversified supply chain. So they've, it seems like they've already had in the back of their mind that you know product can't just come from one place so they've they've started to do that over time.

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Richard Green: Right. Well, okay. Again, I remind you if you have questions for the panel please type them into the Q AMP a box, David, what are you seeing out there.

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David Dollinger: Well, we specialize mostly in R amp D buildings and Silicon Valley. A lot of multi tenant, as well as retail in Southern California in Northern California in the R amp D sector.

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David Dollinger: It's been fine. I think all the tests have been doing well. I do have a couple manufacturing test out a lot. They're already starting to come back from China, like you were saying to us for manufacturing. So I think that trend that's been going up the last few years will continue.

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David Dollinger: But all the r&d tense or it seems to be pretty steady pretty good. We've done a few deals with some big Fortune 100 companies, the smaller tenants are all kind of on hold. At the moment on retail

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David Dollinger: We have

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David Dollinger: Collected rents from all the big box. Guys, we get three day notice is to a lot of them and we still were able to collect the rents.

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David Dollinger: After we give the notices the restaurant space is tough. And we have to continue working with all those small tenants. We have signed a couple leases and the last week with some small retailers and that has

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David Dollinger: What happened here and

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David Dollinger: That's been a little bit surprised to get some small retailers actually signing leases in this environment.

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David Dollinger: But generally rent collections were way up in May.

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David Dollinger: I think a lot of the small tenants got the PPP loans that they may April, May together and having the retail R amp D was already close to 100%

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David Dollinger: The retail WAS LAGGING but may was really good. So we'll see what happens now. In June, as everyone's opening where they can all make the rent payments and such, but it seems in my portfolio that hurt seems to be concentrated in the small Qasr is in restaurants.

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Richard Green: Well, so under restaurants and Rachel. If you want to jump it on this side, like your views to but how many of you do you think how many you think will be flushed out because of this, and how many will survive give a sense of that.

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Rachel Wein: Yeah, I think it's hard to to place a number on it, but it's going to be large scale. We already have some bankruptcies in the restaurant space mall based restaurants like the parent company of Rio.

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Rachel Wein: And any buffet type restaurants like

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Rachel Wein: Sweet tomato and some of the others. I mean those just can't be, can't operate, given the the health constraints. So

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Rachel Wein: Depending on how long the seating restrictions last we may be looking at a large scale rent reset in the restaurant industry, the hurt is felt increasingly along the price spectrum. So the you know Qasr

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Rachel Wein: To pull is going to be fine but fine dining and it's going to be much harder for them to get back online. So I would just, I would echo what David said.

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Richard Green: Do you have any sense of more of them are doing the drive up business. How much revenue, just that replace and can that be used as a supplement

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Richard Green: To they're spreading people out inside the dining room.

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Rachel Wein: What we see is typically a restaurant would get five to 10% of their sales from drive up

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Rachel Wein: Pick up takeout whatnot and with the stores being closed that was roughly doubling and in some cases it was doubling. So, you know, double 10% 20% still an 80% reduction in overall sales. So in many cases.

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Rachel Wein: You have to layer in the employment factor as well, which is that in some cases.

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Rachel Wein: These employees are receiving more and unemployment, which just complicates matters for getting folks back online. And then how many folks do we need to get back online.

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Rachel Wein: When we have the diminished capacity. So there's, there was a question about why retailers way to reopen and this is part of it that the employment issues complicate matters.

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Rachel Wein: And what are the best practices, how are we to keep our team save our going to keep our customer safe and that's that's that's been written yet.

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Richard Green: So you know you. I can't help but interject just one of my favorite hobby horses is the willingness of government to invest in technology.

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Richard Green: When I was hired. This is a problem. So apparently, the reason why the unemployment benefit is just a flat $600 increment over what it was before.

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Richard Green: Is because cobalt doesn't allow any other method of supplementing unemployment, so you know the sensible thing would have been to say you did percentage increases.

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Richard Green: By 25% or 30% so the idea was you didn't want people to lose too much of their purchasing power.

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Richard Green: But the software that unemployment claims run on doesn't permit that. And so the short term answer was just, okay, let's just give everybody an extra 600 bucks.

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Richard Green: So invest in technology makes it makes things better. David, I just wonder, do you have any comments on restaurants young with rituals just

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David Dollinger: Um, it's interesting the takeout. We've heard some restaurants are doing this. They're all Qasr side, we don't have any SIT DOWN RESTAURANTS per se. I have one Sizzler and

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David Dollinger: They're close but some of us ours, they say are doing anywhere from 50 to 90% of their pre volume in take out. So some of the retailers have it down where they're really going to take out

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David Dollinger: But they're just all starting to reopen now. And so I think we will see how this all shakes out in the next month or two.

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David Dollinger: Like I said PPP kind of papered over some of this, though. The one thing that is a little frustrating is from a tenant relations standpoint is

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David Dollinger: We have a number of there's a number of tenants, though, mostly restaurants that don't call you back. They don't pay their rent. They may be open for take either may not

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David Dollinger: But you can't make a deal with them. You can't even give them free rent. You can't do anything. They just ignore you, and putting their head in the sand and you can evict them either. And so that is another issue that I'm not sure how it's going to get resolved in the short term.

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Richard Green: I can't help but notice that my neighborhood McDonald's. The line of cars outside of it now is about as long as the London entire fund was before the crisis. So who would have thought Stanley. Last but not least, they asked me to go last. As he covers so many different product types with

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Richard Green: His company. So, Stan.

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Stanley Iezman: So I think the biggest issue that we're focusing on right now is trying to maintain tenant relationships with all of the retail tenants in a manner that

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Stanley Iezman: Supports long term relationships and tries to understand the synergies that exists between those tenants and ensuring that we work with them to try and keep them in the property. Our biggest fear and

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Stanley Iezman: And we are primarily in grocery anchored shopping centers. We have a couple of power centers.

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Stanley Iezman: But in the grocery anchor. We want to make sure that the these shops tenants that are there are capable of serving the local needs.

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Stanley Iezman: And that we're doing the right thing to keep them in place with the expectation that rent will ultimately come in to play.

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Stanley Iezman: And that they will be able to survive on the power center side, obviously it's a totally different story. And there, there's a

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Stanley Iezman: Different calculus that has to be played there. But the biggest issue we're focused on in all of our assets is the re entry protocols and what we are going to be doing and reentry and how we're going to

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Stanley Iezman: Get people to be comfortable. And that's really the key issue is getting people to be comfortable

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Stanley Iezman: To be able to come back into the workplace, to be able to shop at the ground floor retail in our office buildings to go back to the shopping centers to go into our

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Stanley Iezman: gyms that are multifamily properties certainly industrials and a totally different conversation because there's less comfort that's needed there.

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Stanley Iezman: But we're really focused on that. And I think that that is taking an immense amount of time and the the benchmarks are constantly changing, because nobody really understands

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Stanley Iezman: What that criteria really should look like. So what we thought about reentry, two weeks ago is changing on a daily basis as we start to understand

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Stanley Iezman: What's available. What can we do, how do we do it. I mean, we've gotten to the point where do we in office buildings to reach us people

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Stanley Iezman: Can we allow testing to occur in the lobby, do we test our own employees when they're coming in.

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Stanley Iezman: The US thermometers you scanners on what is the appropriate protocol to give people comfort that they can go to work and they're not going to get sick.

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Stanley Iezman: That that is a that is a key issue that that we're focusing on the other two issues that I think are critically important to all of us.

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Stanley Iezman: Is to really look at the impacts the longer term impacts and what this is going to do to city states and counties with regard to their budgets and what that impact is going to be on valuations.

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Stanley Iezman: Because we're very concerned about property tax increases in all majors in all major cities in all major states as well as income tax increases.

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Stanley Iezman: Around the country so areas that historically have been what we would call safe zones. The Nashville's the the Charlotte's the Raleigh's the Dallas's Houston's the Austin's

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Stanley Iezman: Nashville's mayor just announced that they're looking to increase their property taxes by 32%

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Stanley Iezman: If that happens, that hasn't that calculus changes valuations. And what we're doing with deals that we're looking at there. So in each of the major markets where we have to do is and extrapolate

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Stanley Iezman: Where we think that's going to occur. And what the impact of that's going to be and how do we build it into our evaluations and does that really impact tenants coming

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Stanley Iezman: leasing at the same rates that they were leasing out before or is there going to be some diminution in that rents that we're going to ultimately receive

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Stanley Iezman: The third item that we're really focusing focusing on right now is the legislation that is working its way through in all of the progressive states. So for example, here in California.

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Stanley Iezman: I'm sure many of you have heard about SB 939 which is essentially going to allow restaurants to and and those small businesses that have lost

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Stanley Iezman: 25% or more of their income to essentially go back to their landlords and the renegotiate the lease and if they don't get a successful renegotiation. They have the right to terminate the lease.

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Stanley Iezman: That legislation has a high likelihood of passing. And unfortunately, it has the significant the support of a lot of cities.

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Stanley Iezman: And counties and a lot of our politicians who are supporting this obviously there's a there's a reason why they they believe that but the net impact.

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Stanley Iezman: In California is going to be rather significant because it may impact we haven't talked to lenders yet about this, but we think that when lenders really start to realize what this looks like.

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Stanley Iezman: And if it, if it gains legs and other areas. That's that restrict the number of loans.

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Stanley Iezman: That are going to be coming in, or is there going to be greater recourse that is going to be required, or is there going to be more reserves that are going to be built in.

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Stanley Iezman: Into the lending platform. So all of these things are evolving. I didn't go back to the, the one area where we were stressed previously was in retail

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Stanley Iezman: Interestingly enough, the retail tenants are now picking up on their rent. I'm all the majors that paid. We don't have

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Stanley Iezman: Any real challenges with the majors. I won't mention names of those retailers. They know who they are and they understand what they're doing but but the goal is to work with them and to help them.

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Stanley Iezman: Get, get sustainability and to allow them to be able to survive and recognizing, of course, it is Rachel indicated

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Stanley Iezman: And I think it's an important one, is that all this stuff is exacerbated what has already been happening for a number of years.

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Stanley Iezman: And the real question is, is can the retailers. Those who who are going to make it. Can they create a viable.

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Stanley Iezman: Value creation strategy that is going to track the interest of the consumer. And I think that's what we're all fighting what all retailers are doing right now is trying to

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Stanley Iezman: Gain the attention of the consumer and be able to capture their imagination and allow them to be able to convert from e commerce to two

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Stanley Iezman: Bricks and mortar commerce and you do that virtuous circle of omni channel because that's really what's going to drive retailing for the for the future you everybody has to have an E tailing

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Stanley Iezman: Outlet and everybody has to, they should have a retail of the bricks and mortar retailing. And I think if you talk to some of the major retailers they recognize

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Stanley Iezman: The value of what is called the halo effect of when you buy something and then you go back to the store.

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Stanley Iezman: To return it. You typically buy more when you're in the store than what you actually return. So it's a dynamic that is going to play itself out. And don't think that retailing is remotely dad and don't think that office buildings are remotely dead by any stretch of the imagination.

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Richard Green: So let me let me there was so much there that I want to follow up on. Let's start with 939

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Richard Green: What are they, I don't think it really defines what a small business is other than

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Richard Green: If you're a publicly traded company. You're not a small business, but other than that, I, I looked through the bill, a couple of times. And it's been revised so maybe it just has changed, but I couldn't find the definition of a

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Richard Green: Small business today where the

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Richard Green: In the bill.

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Stanley Iezman: It doesn't, you've got to look at it very carefully.

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It does.

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Stanley Iezman: That no i don't know what the definition is. I think it's a very vague definition.

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Richard Green: I don't think it has a definition.

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Richard Green: Other than, you know, if you're publicly traded, you're not. But there are some pretty big companies that are closely held and so I mean now. That to me is one of the their number of issues with it, but that, in particular.

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Richard Green: To leave open that something like that opens up the possibility of even more mischief than it might have created otherwise.

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Stanley Iezman: Oh, can all I can suggest is to all of our listeners is right to your, your appropriate down city, city official and State official and tell them that you don't support. This is going to have a big problem for all of us.

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Richard Green: So, so I'm going to do the things you said so what recommendations would you so I'd say about Texas.

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Richard Green: Texas has an Avalon property tax system.

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Richard Green: And in fact, they have a month, even though they have no income tax their sales taxes are kind of love, but they have among the highest property taxes have any statement country. Um, so one could imagine property texts in Texas actually going up quite a lot just sort of by default.

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Richard Green: What would you recommend to these governments that are bleeding revenue and do have to like school kids to collect garbage and that kind of stuff.

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Stanley Iezman: Unfortunately, I don't have a solution for the

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Stanley Iezman: The political implications of this, I would suggest, though, that we need to step back and realize that if we are going to tax our properties which are as an indirect tax to the owner

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Stanley Iezman: That is going to have an impact on the on valuation, which is going to reduce

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Stanley Iezman: The values that they're taxing on so the circle is is that if you increase your taxes, it will reduce your valuation, which is going to result in all of us going in and appealing our taxes. I don't have a fair way of

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Stanley Iezman: Doing suggesting what those taxes should be. But I do know that the higher the tax base is going to be, it's going to drag out business.

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Richard Green: So that file on interest on retail is the more generic point beyond cove it

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Richard Green: And we've seen apparel sales fall. And that's not an e commerce versus bricks and mortars, people are spending less money on clothes.

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Richard Green: One could imagine this accelerating that I mean I haven't put on a tie and 10 weeks now, something like that. Um, I have a couple of beautiful sits in my closet that

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Richard Green: I haven't worn. I mean, are we going to be used to a work environment.

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Richard Green: Where we really don't need to dress up. And so, you know, women don't buy heels. Men don't buy top. Well, there are many times we get the point. Is there a secular trend that's problematic for all retail that people are just not going to buy as much closest things to

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Stanley Iezman: Us. I mean, use myself as an example I always wore a suit every day. I did where time but I did wear a suit and a shirt. I've had to go out and buy lots of

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Stanley Iezman: Sweaters like this.

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Stanley Iezman: With unique different colors. So I didn't blend in so my consumption patterns actually over the last three months of increased dramatically as I've gone online and had to search for stuff that I normally did not wear

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Stanley Iezman: So yes, my, my suit maker is going to be going out of business, possibly, but my sweater maker maybe baby able to do that.

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Rachel Wein: Stanley is not indicative of large swath in America. But one thing we can take from this is

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Rachel Wein: People still need clothes but they need different clothes. So when you look at the year over year increases and what brands are really performing well

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Rachel Wein: It's Lou lemon is doing exceptionally well 40% increase in sales year every year, but also house brands at Amazon at Target at Costco at Walmart. Those are also doing really well. And a lot of the mall based brands yeah h&m Burberry

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Rachel Wein: North base unit glow big decreases in year over year sales, but you know, I think we're gonna we're going to be spending differently, but we're still going to need certain things and certainly the staples are going to same so

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Rachel Wein: You know when you look across the industry. Some, some folks are going to be unnecessarily depressed right now, but will

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Rachel Wein: It a lot of this is just going to depend on how long this really last which I think for any of us to be able to say

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Rachel Wein: We would be unreasonable.

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Rachel Wein: But the reality is we you know we were on one end of the pendulum in January or February, and we were on the other end, maybe towards the very end of April with everyone at all across the country.

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Rachel Wein: You know, the idea that we're going to get back to some kind of before coven normal is unrealistic. We will get back to something that approaches somewhere along those lines, but

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Rachel Wein: Simply for the patterns that have changed in buying and in the consumer economy. Many of those patterns will naturally stick

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Richard Green: So let me turn to start turning over to audience questions here. And again, if you have a question, please type it in the Q AMP a box. I am also looking at the chat will answer that one too, but

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Richard Green: It just easier to organize if you type them into the Q AMP a box. So please do that.

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Richard Green: I'm from Grand Walberg regarding industrial demand, given the all time high construction levels how bullish are you on industrial demand will we see long term reversion to hire vacancy or not. So, Lisa, David, let me

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Richard Green: Have one you tackle that one.

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Lisa Reddy: Yeah, actually. So from, you know, pro largest we have an internal research team we anticipate that the demand is going to increase. Just because of the evolution of the

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Lisa Reddy: More, more companies going to e commerce. So naturally, it's going to take up more estriol space we anticipate

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Lisa Reddy: inventory levels increasing so so companies, keeping more stock on hand so that you can be ready for the consumer demand and not you know something like this happens again it's not stuck in the chain. So we anticipate

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Lisa Reddy: We anticipate the industrial need going up obviously right now, construction and industrial has slowed, you know,

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Lisa Reddy: In some parts stopped. So as we enter recovery. You know, I think that the the new development is going to take a little longer, just to resume but stock inventory of industrial we anticipate that it's going to be in higher demand.

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Richard Green: So, Lisa, I think your point about inventory is a really interesting one. And and basically a response to the fragility of the economy that was revealed by having a very tight.

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Richard Green: Supply chain but you have any that how long you think. And again, this is a bit of an unfair question. But before we forget this lesson that a little bit of redundant because redundancy.

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Richard Green: As a cost a quarterly income statement standpoint, it's not appealing really to Wall Street analysts and yet clearly having some inventory is a good idea.

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Richard Green: So do you think people will learn a lesson because this is so severe. For a long time, or do you think we revert back to the way things were a couple of years.

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Lisa Reddy: I mean, I know if I had a crystal ball. Oh. Um, I don't know. I

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Richard Green: slightly unfair question, but I'll ask it anyway.

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Lisa Reddy: Yeah. You know, I think, I think it will just take time to see

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Lisa Reddy: How, how fast will that inventory. Inventory term. You know, like as Rachel and Sam were mentioning, when I walk our warehouses with our customers now.

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Lisa Reddy: Customers who used to store. Let's say luxury goods they get, they they've shifted and they're storing, you know, washing machines and industrial strength cleaners. So it's a shift and what they're storing and what the demand is so I think

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Lisa Reddy: I think it depends on how fast the world goes back to, you know, let's say normal and, you know, will it ever go back to pre coven normal. I mean, I hope so. But I don't know, I think. Only time will tell.

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Richard Green: You want to weigh in on us.

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David Dollinger: Well, like I said, Silicon Valley. We really haven't had any and industrial like you're talking about built in yours was one or two projects.

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David Dollinger: But the R amp D sector, I think will get tighter because you're not writing elevators it single story can get access to it and it out. I think that Tantra going to take more space rather less so they can space out there workers.

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David Dollinger: So I think the ultimate impact will be for greater demand for that R amp D sector.

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Richard Green: So let's move on to Stanley, if we have a couple of questions that office from Garland from Sunday civilian I'm going to combine their two questions into one.

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Richard Green: Which is are you seeing office tenants 3 million less are downsizing in place student more employees working from home.

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Richard Green: And this is the stuff to house with Sonia's question about how we look at what Facebook said last week with Twitter said a couple weeks ago about having more than worker stay home. In fact, Facebook saying even leave the bay area that will pay less money if you want to move to a supermarket.

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Richard Green: What do you see from all of this.

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Stanley Iezman: Well, first of all, let's separate the headline from the trend lines, so to speak, if I could use that term.

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Stanley Iezman: I know what they're saying. But they're not necessarily doing anything different. They're taking down more space.

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Stanley Iezman: So the tech companies are clearly growing what they've done is they've basically said, you can work at home. If you want to work at home.

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Stanley Iezman: But there. There's no diminution necessarily in terms of the demand side there's not a lot of leasing being done right now, so I can't point the data points is to suggest you

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Stanley Iezman: That there are people that are taking down a million square feet at this moment in time.

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Stanley Iezman: But our expectation is, is that as people become more comfortable. They're going to accelerate the number of people coming back from the offices and that those buildings that are dense are going to have to figure out how to do dense Ify both on a tenant side and a on a on a owner side.

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Stanley Iezman: Being very practical, though, I think we have a lot of time as we work through what this is going to look like right now.

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Stanley Iezman: I was on a call in New York with the other owners of the major New York office buildings and the commentary is that they don't expect more than 20% of their employees to come back to work for the foreseeable future.

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Stanley Iezman: And I think that really is going to be a function of just people trusting, whether they're going to be able to be safe in the buildings and whether there's appropriate

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Stanley Iezman: security and safety in place to be able to make them feel that that comfort level. So it's an evolving process that I don't necessarily know is going to be the death knell of the office industry by any stretch of the imagination.

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Richard Green: So, you know, has anyone done work yet to sort of spec out how much more space. You need per employee than OR is currently being used in order to maintain social distancing

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Stanley Iezman: Yeah, I think the number I saw the other day is if you go, you're going to go from 150 to 300 it's going to be literally doubling

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Stanley Iezman: The amount of space, you would need if you go from 150 square feet per person to 300 square feet per person. And I think it's actually a little bigger than that, when you go to the 16th spacing.

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Richard Green: Okay, it's how if if you're doubling the amount of space, you need per employee in order to keep social distancing and the number of employees working in the office drops 20% that's still a big increase the demand for office space. If I'm doing math properly.

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Richard Green: It will be a 60% increase in demand right we know is only 20% if you only have 20% people showing up.

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Richard Green: You would probably

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Richard Green: Cover okay

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Richard Green: Okay. All right. Oh, so I misunderstood. You see, said only 20% are showing up not

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Stanley Iezman: Yeah, yeah. The anticipation

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Richard Green: Sorry. Okay. All right. So that means, you'd be at

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Richard Green: About 40% of previous occupancy so

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Stanley Iezman: By the way, I do want to go back to the question you asked Lisa about supply chain.

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Richard Green: Sure.

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Stanley Iezman: I think it's really important. The, the notion that we're. I mean, the expectation is, there's going to be brought on shoring in a much more significant way.

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Stanley Iezman: The, the ability to be able to manufacture certain products. But the challenge is going to be is the cost structure overseas is significantly lower than

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Stanley Iezman: Us here. So, it is going to create a challenge because the consumer may not necessarily be capable of paying that increase price in order to get that supply chain consistent with what they want.

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Richard Green: So I think that's I think the idea of ensuring particularly things like textiles.

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Richard Green: Um, is highly unlikely. I mean, there's a long history of textiles, going to the place of cheap labor. It started in New England 200 years ago and then it moved to the south and then it moved to Japan, and then it moved to Taiwan and then it moved to China and now it's

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Richard Green: In the China would blow up bug with

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Vietnam.

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Richard Green: But what happened is because China started getting expensive.

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Richard Green: Stuff was all moving to Bangladesh in Vietnam.

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Richard Green: Anywhere. Anyway, I don't know where you go from Bangladesh.

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Richard Green: Because that's really low cost on perhaps I don't know. Go on.

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Richard Green: But yeah, it. And so the idea of on shoring

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Richard Green: low skilled manufacturing just doesn't seem plausible to me. But how quickly you can move over to even India from China is also that that's not something that can be done quickly, so like making iPhones in India. Is that something that could be done.

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Richard Green: Overnight, and you know, short run, you might have some of that come back here and it's just more expensive to buy an iPhone.

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Stanley Iezman: So, you know, send us question about office usage. And one of the questions that we're all looking at who are owners of companies around working staff and home.

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Stanley Iezman: Is the effectiveness of that that staff and does it is it really productive and I think that we're finding that it is highly productive.

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Stanley Iezman: With a lot less noise and a lot less drama people being in the office and what that may do is, there's going to be a certain constituency that we're going to have the rest of time that's going to result in more people working from home.

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Stanley Iezman: In and coming into the office less frequently because let's think about it from an employee standpoint if I'm sitting down, I'm looking at an hour and a half commute or an hour commute each way.

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Stanley Iezman: And I'm looking at having to spend money to park and I'm having a look at money to buy a suit.

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Stanley Iezman: Or buy clothes and go out to lunch. The amount of savings that is available there by just working at home is pretty significant. And it's something that I think is going to create a break greater pressure in the working environment.

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Richard Green: Well it. The other thing to think about is if people do work two days a week at home so 40% of the time at home. We know in LA about 40% of trips are work related trips 60% or not. But if you reduce

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Richard Green: Travel by work trip travel by 60% 60% times 40% is a 24% reduction in cars on the road.

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Richard Green: Presumably, people are not going to be going in the movies during the day, if they're supposed to be working. And there's two ways we figure that out. And so this could actually have an enormous impact.

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Richard Green: On the capacity of our infrastructure. This is my looking at the bright side part and how we use that infrastructure and I'm very curious to see how that's going to move forward.

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Stanley Iezman: Guys, a question of race on because

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Stanley Iezman: I've been intrigued by

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Stanley Iezman: If we all look at apparel, and we look at apparel in the in the e commerce space and we look at free shipping free returns

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Stanley Iezman: What is the percentage of returns that come back on apparel and what is the profitability of those soft goods. Those stuff that stores when they've got a big online presence and they're doing a lot of e commerce work.

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Rachel Wein: So that's, that's a loaded question. And I can answer it. Some of that at least the latest data that I've seen has approximately 50% of apparel sales being returned, and I think the question about profitability.

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Richard Green: That's

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Rachel Wein: Five, zero.

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Rachel Wein: 55 050 and I can say that I surely contribute to that. And I feel like I have been personally wrapping up the apparel business for the last few months.

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Rachel Wein: But I think we have to separate out

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Rachel Wein: Multiple different pieces of the e commerce sector and look at profitability individually. So it depends if it's fulfilled by

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Rachel Wein: A distribution center versus if it's fulfilled by a store. It depends on how many stores are needed, or how many locations are needed to fulfill a certain order on

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Rachel Wein: And and that gets to be a little bit more complicated. It appears as though grocery will actually be easier to get right then apparel, as we move into further grocery e commerce and that's in part because if you have something that hasn't

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Rachel Wein: That isn't in stock. You can generally find a replacement. It's not like if you don't have a red sweater. You're just not going to get a red sweater. And so that's that's beneficial.

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Rachel Wein: However, most of the grocery commerce is being fulfilled right now is not very profitable at all. Very unprofitable and

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Rachel Wein: We can talk a little bit more on Chris e commerce.

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Rachel Wein: If that's if that's of interest.

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Richard Green: Um, so I, it is of interest, but we have a bunch of questions that I want it. I want to get to some of these I think are really worth telling you about. One is, I mean, from Matthew more

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Richard Green: Vegan economics published data showing that up to half a decline in retail consumer spending in Q1 wasn't healthcare sector.

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Richard Green: Retail an office landlords recording healthcare related tenants do their installation from online competition or work from home. What is the outlook for the shopping center dentist or office building physical therapist.

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Stanley Iezman: What what the question is, What is the outlook for the shopping center.

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Richard Green: Yeah, it is. So yeah, there was a view that the way we're going to save shopping centers.

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Stanley Iezman: Services. I mean all of our grocery anchored shopping centers morphing more and more towards and I'm sure, Rachel.

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Stanley Iezman: Validity validate this is that we're moving more to services on the in the shop space.

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Stanley Iezman: So the real question is, so the Massage Envy is the dentist anything where there's going to be somebody who's going to be working closely with somebody else.

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Stanley Iezman: Where they're going to be hovering over their body. You're looking into their mouth, where there's a potential for transmission of disease. I think there's going to have to be a

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Stanley Iezman: comfort level with the consumer, being able to utilize that with protocols in place, they're going to protect both the provider of those services and the consumer. So I don't know what that's gonna look like postcode

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Stanley Iezman: Now,

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Rachel Wein: There's a difference between their routine care and then the one time care. So I'm not familiar with this study that the question. References

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Rachel Wein: But you know it hospitals across the country had to stop doing routine.

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Rachel Wein: Procedures and what's considered a routine to to you or me. It's kind of broad, but a knee replacement is considered routine. In some cases, cancer treatments are considered routine. And those are things that people are going to do as soon as they're able to

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Rachel Wein: But it's possible that someone would skip their teeth cleaning and just not get this one done and go on to the next one. So in that case, it's more like

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Rachel Wein: Like a haircut. You can get your hair cut three times because you didn't do it once every three months. So I think it's going to be a nuance there but services are going to be back, people still need to get their teeth clean eventually

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Richard Green: Given you look like you are. You had something to say about that.

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David Dollinger: Oh, I thought her hair cut analogy was great.

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Richard Green: You know, it seems to me there's gonna be p p will be the key is, is people just being comfortable that their providers are doing that right

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Richard Green: Way and, you know, it really does work is in Mohan one's health care providers started shooting up properly.

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Richard Green: On there was, I think there was not a single case. Okay, maybe you don't translate the Chinese data, but that this is the sort of thing. It's such specific that you could dig up somebody who got the disease if if they had and

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Richard Green: So I think people getting comfortable with your dentist wearing you know a whole lot of plastic over there thinks is going to be critical to getting people

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Richard Green: Back in the dentist chair and all I know I should want to get my I'm glad I got I think about this. I got my teeth cleaned, about a week before the shutdown and I'm really glad I did that. So, um,

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Richard Green: You know, I can have one of these without cap rates is we have

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Richard Green: From Graham Walberg. Given the high spreads to the risk free rate you know 10 year Treasury is still well under 1% do you think cap rates will go lower

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Richard Green: And I think this is more about a longer term things, of course, none of us know what cap rates are right now. But let's say looking at six months a year from now.

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Stanley Iezman: Do I think cap rates are going to go lower

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Yeah.

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Stanley Iezman: I think that with borrowing rates relatively low, there's

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Stanley Iezman: A chance. The question is, is what is the risk. I haven't seen any real material change in cap rates going down. I've seen them snake.

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Stanley Iezman: Move up a little bit in certain areas, certainly in industrial they haven't gone down at all.

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Stanley Iezman: As a matter of fact, there's more demand for industrial than ever before. Um, I think office in major cities may there may be a short term.

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Stanley Iezman: Impact I think based upon the public market pricing, they're certainly going when can extrapolate which is not capable of being extrapolated there is an impact.

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Stanley Iezman: But we haven't seen there's no there's no real data points yet to point to and transactions where we can say that there has been a repricing

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David Dollinger: Right now.

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David Dollinger: Right, Richard.

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David Dollinger: Yeah, I was gonna say is right now pricing.

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David Dollinger: The 10 year Treasury is sort of irrelevant, because all these lenders have put floors in place the condo market is basically

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David Dollinger: Just starting to do a few loans goldman sachs did a pool. About a week ago and some other lenders are starting to quote their very first loans right now. Any Wells Fargo just quoted their first one

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David Dollinger: So, and they have much wider spreads built in. Then prior. So just because you're seeing the 10 year treasury of point six three or whatever.

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David Dollinger: Their, their, their loans are being priced with interest rates of 4% and above. So you're not, you're not going to benefit of that now as typically happens and all these downturns within a few months I six I expect that spread to

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David Dollinger: Get narrower and then your cap rates will start to reflect that. But right now, in this short term, I'm looking at buying some properties right now, but the financing costs a lot more than it was two months ago, or three months ago.

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Stanley Iezman: And proceeds are lower.

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David Dollinger: Yes. Yeah, and they want reserves and some other things.

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Stanley Iezman: And they want. Yeah, they want to structure and they want personal liability uncertainty more personal liability report.

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Richard Green: So, so it's procyclical lending policy, which is not very helpful from the macro standpoint, Lisa. Rachel, any, any comments on cafritz

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Rachel Wein: Yeah, I haven't, I haven't seen a whole lot. That's, that's really transacted to be able to give an indication of trends.

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Rachel Wein: You know anecdotally things that I was hearing at the beginning.

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Rachel Wein: You know, certainly in the essential retail side was, you know, well, why would I sell now for anything worse than what I could have gotten a few months ago. I'll just write it out and then all of a sudden

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Rachel Wein: The mood changed, and it was almost well everyone wants to Central retail now and how could I dilute some of my

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Rachel Wein: Less well performing retail with some more essential so it's all around the board. I mean, I think most professional owners are going to sit it out and see what happens. I don't see a whole lot of distress immediately.

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Lisa Reddy: Yeah, and I agree with Stanley. I mean, you know, some some deals that were under contract, you know that some of our competitors are buying pre coated

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Lisa Reddy: They ended up closing during the pandemic and there was no price adjustment. I mean, this is core industrial and a strong market and they see the need and the benefit and it's

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Lisa Reddy: You know, in terms of industrial it's shown that it's critical to the essential, you know, the essential needs and goods supply chain, essentially.

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Richard Green: Question occurs to me. And I don't know if anybody has an answer this. But usually when in in tough times like this. You see distressed debt as a great opportunity for investment basically a way to acquire

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Richard Green: Really good real estate at a lower cost. And you see that opportunity arising as a result of this

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Stanley Iezman: Now, no.

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Richard Green: No, no, but but but

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Richard Green: Yeah, eventually

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Stanley Iezman: Arguably, I remember something, if you're going to buy the debt. You have to, you have to deal with the piano.

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Stanley Iezman: You're gonna have to foreclose

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Stanley Iezman: Yeah. Understood. So that's going to be your, your discount on your pricing has to be significant enough to take on the underlying risk.

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Stanley Iezman: It's around that. So, but there's no there's no distress. Now remember in 2007 wasn't until what 2008 nine

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Richard Green: That it was really 2009 the commercial real estate went to distress. That's right.

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Richard Green: I remember Bernanke he saying commercial real estate would save the economy.

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Richard Green: Because as as the housing market was tanking the commercial market didn't

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Richard Green: And then 2009 it didn't know it snapped back very quickly. Unlike the housing market.

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Richard Green: Because I think a lot of the distress in commercial real estate arose from are basically refinance just coming to that couldn't be.

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Richard Green: refunded that nobody would lead and so you had a lot of excess property on the market for that reason.

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Rachel Wein: Talked about hospitality. But that's going to be where the biggest hurt is going to be

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Rachel Wein: You know, if, if the rest of the property sectors that we're talking about here are, you know, a 90 day pain, period. It's going to be many, many, many months for hospitality. So I think that will be for anyone that's really interesting. That would be the opportunities to live.

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Richard Green: So on. And on that note, I mean, one of the things that one of the big questions for the economy more broadly. When are people going to start traveling again and I just

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Richard Green: If I had a poll. I'd ask the audience, but I don't have that function built in. Who here is comfortable getting on an airplane just now.

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Stanley Iezman: I can I rephrase the question.

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Richard Green: Yeah.

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Stanley Iezman: It's not whether you and I are comfortable getting on the airplane on an airplane. If you look at the traffic through traffic is up significantly and airplanes.

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Stanley Iezman: People are traveling. If you look at the numbers for all the major airlines, they're up pretty significantly on the month of week by week basis.

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Richard Green: But it came down, they were down in 95%

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Stanley Iezman: What okay

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Richard Green: Family, so I'm just looking at that. So the data is the number of TSA has the number of people that go through airports every day. And I think we're still down

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Richard Green: Right now.

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Stanley Iezman: Short, short term, short term we're gonna have a problem but long term we're gonna be fine.

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Richard Green: Yeah. Yeah, but I mean what is what. How long is long term.

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Rachel Wein: Think we're going to see a lot of domestic travel

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Rachel Wein: To hopefully that'll be good for consumer spending for folks that were going to spend a lot of money. This summer going to Europe going wherever you know if they can spend that money.

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Rachel Wein: Domestically, that would be fantastic. From a business travel perspective, it's not about if I'm comfortable traveling. It's about if whoever I'm going to see is comfortable seeing me once I arrived.

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Rachel Wein: So that's going to take a while before

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Rachel Wein: Some of the larger corporate folks are going to be welcoming you know visitors into their offices and I don't know if Stanley's gonna let me a new one of his office building. I need to show some kind of special card.

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Stanley Iezman: Just your

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Richard Green: Pitcher FYI is a year may 25 is the most recent comparable data, a year ago I may 25 two and a half million people went through American airports.

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Richard Green: This year 340,000 people went through American airport. So that's got about 85% still from where it was. And, you know, secure hospitality. It's, it's one number is going to tell you a lot about

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Richard Green: The other. And with that, we have to wrap up.

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Richard Green: The hour went very quickly. Let me thank our panelists. Again, very, very much. Lisa ready

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Richard Green: Rachel Elias Sweeney David Fincher and Stanley iseman thank you all for your thoughts. Our next

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Richard Green: Price for less perspectives will be next Wednesday at 11am, this will be another very good one will have Torsten slob.

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Richard Green: Is the chief economist of Deutsche Bank securities very informative and entertaining guy. So join us for that and then

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Richard Green: On Tuesday, the following week, June 9 we have David Griffin, who's the CEO of Freddie Mac will be joining us on that day. So we'll look forward to seeing, I hope. Most, if not all of you and thank you very much for coming.

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Richard Green: Today,

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Stanley Iezman: Thank you.