ULI event highlights SoCal's infrastructure shortages and the impacts of a lack of new investment
BY LAURA COLEMAN
CREJ Staff Writer
You can learn a lot from an adage.
Like not putting off for tomorrow what you can accomplish today. Or that hindsight is 20-20.
Legislators from the Golden State certainly couldn't do any worse to determine the state's next move.
"The population is growing," said Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. economist Jack Kyser. "It's growing at a good strong rate, and if we don't start planning more effectively and finding ways to finance it, we are really going to be in a mess."
In early May, a group of regional leaders gathered to discuss transportation and urban development issues in the Inland Empire at an Urban Land Institute event titled "The Metropolitan Time Bomb."
The event's location in Corona couldn't have been more appropriate.
The region's population has grown significantly from the constant stream of people attracted by the relatively affordable housing prices available inland. However, while the dream of owning a home is easier to realize in the Inland Empire, achieving a caliber of lifestyle on par with coastal cities - varied retail and cultural forums, for example - is considerably more difficult.
But as people continue to move further out, cities will continue to evolve.
"We're already seeing cosmopolitan cities emerge with very rapid job growth in the Inland Empire," said Genevieve Giuliano, professor at USC's School of Policy, Planning, and Developmentcolor>.
As regional demographics in the Inland Empire grow increasingly attractive for development and as retailers become more comfortable, inland cities will continue to change.
In the future, Giuliano said, cities like Riverside likely will become commuter destinations themselves.
Already, Ontario has established itself as a commuter destination that draws employees from Victorville, one of the last beacons of affordability in the region.
But how the inland landscape will look remains anyone's guess.
"We are ground zero for implementation of a brand new paradigm," said Bob Wolfe, president of Germania Corp., while speaking at the institute's event.
He cited the expected 3 million residents the region will add by 2020.
Stuck in Commuter Hell
The continued migration could be problematic. If people build lives in one place but work elsewhere, the standard 30-minute commute could lengthen.
Giuliano said that only 10 percent of the population commutes for more than 30 minutes and that longer commutes tend to be unsustainable.
"We're really behind the 8-ball in terms of keeping up with the movement of people," Kyser said.
However, he added, the movement of people is just one part of the transportation issue; the other is the movement of goods.
According to a Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. study released in May, "International Trade Trends & Impacts: The Southern California Region," unless rail capacity improvements are made quickly, the system could max out by 2006.
Kyser said the finding was surprising.
"Transportation and infrastructure is something that we really haven't thought about," he said of the California mentality. "And we haven't been able to forecast change in transportation technology."
Giuliano said that such a predication might not come to fruition, however.
"We can all make a lot of predictions, but we don't know what the future holds," she said.
However, Giuliano said, as the most congested metropolitan region in the country, "unless we get serious about increasing capacity, we're going to have serious problems.
"If we don't increase capacity, congestion is going to get worse."
Economic Backlash
As the most congested places become more costly to do business in, a backlash is likely, where the high costs act as a deterrent, Giuliano said. However, she added, people and jobs adjust.
"You're looking at an unoptimistic or unpromising future if we don't deal with the infrastructure," she said.
Giuliano said she expected to see more central areas continue to get denser.
Maureen McAvey, senior resident fellow with Urban Land Institute and speaker at the event, said that the nation's "edgeless cities" have contributed to the suffering infrastructure funding.
McAvey cited the accompanying transportation woes, which have resulted in exaggerated rush hours and commuter route and hour changes.
"We are seeing humans, as we always have, adapting to these problems," she said.
In addition, she said, the increasing sprawl has contributed to a lack of civic engagement, McAvey said. And 60 million new residents are expected to come to the nation in the next 20 years.
"Where are we going to put them?" she asked. "This is not a trivial question. Where will they go?"
As one of the eight fastest-growing counties in the nation - with a median household size of 1.7 - the Inland Empire is facing a dramatic need for additional housing units, she said.
"Lifestyle is actually driving the decisions people make," McAvey said. "Quality of lifestyle increasingly matters because we are not willing to compromise.
"We can change how we live if we choose to."
Such steps, she said, might include building smart projects such as workforce and affordable housing, mixed use, increased density; educating the public; supporting and honoring good projects; changing zoning; or removing barriers to infill.
Speaking at the event, Eric Haley, executive director of the Riverside County Transportation Commission, said implementation was key for the area to be able to avoid strangling on its own growth.
Haley cited the $1.4 billion that likely will be lost because of Proposition 42, through which infrastructure funding will be used to fill the state budget instead of going toward repairing the state's ailing transportation system.
Already, he said, "there is a $5 billion hole."
- E-mail Laura_Coleman@DailyJournal.com
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