Article by Bob Howard LOS ANGELES-Average monthly apartment rents in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire are expected to increase from 8% to 15% through third quarter 2004, according to a new USC Lusk Center Casden Real Estate Forecast released today. Rents will rise faster than tenants' incomes, according to Raphael Bostic, director of the Casden Forecast, who says in the outlook that apartment market conditions will remain "extremely tight" across the Los Angeles region well into 2004. Average monthly rents in Los Angeles County will increase about 12% through mid-2004, the forecast predicts. LA County accounts for the region's largest apartment market with 900,000 units, or nearly 71% of the total. Rents are expected to increase about 8% over the same period in Orange County, which accounts for about 225,000 units or 18% of the regional total. Rents in the Inland Empire (Riverside County and San Bernardino County) are forecast to increase about 15%. The Inland Empire is the smallest of the three markets, with less than 150,000 units or about 11% of the total. The Casden Forecast analyzed data from Carrollton, TX-based M/PF Research, focusing on the Los Angeles, Orange and Inland Empire apartment markets. Among the factors pushing rents upward despite the overall weakness in the economy are the region's strong population growth and relatively healthy economy compared to conditions in other parts of the country, according to the forecast. In addition, apartment construction remains at low levels despite vacancy rates of less than 5% across most of the region, land prices remain high, many communities resist apartment projects and a shortage of subsidies for affordable rental housing limits the supply of new units coming on the market throughout the Los Angeles region.
February 6, 2003