Lusk Director Richard K. Green delivers highlights from the 2022 Casden Multifamily Forecast Report. 

Before Green gives a breakdown of Southern California multifamily real estate markets, he pauses to discuss four uncertainties impacting the region. Inflation, interest rates, net migration, and the impending recession are all top-of-mind issues that could dilute the forecast’s potency should any of the factors take a dramatic rise or dip.

As for the forecast, Green reviews historical and forecasted data on each market, including overall economic resiliency, net migration since the pandemic began, construction activity, vacancy rates, rent growth, and more. Regions covered include Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, the Inland Empire, and Ventura.

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An industry panel discusses the changing dynamics of office work in real estate and beyond.

By now, it’s apparent that some version of remote work is here to stay for a dominant number of firms. Remote and hybrid work can solve serious employee issues like flexibility, commute times, and even productivity. However, the new work arrangements are not without drawbacks. 

Moderator Mary Lynne Boorn (USC Price) invites Allison Lynch (Compass Ventures), Amalia Paliobeis (AvantStay), and Brandi Popovich (SoLa Impact) to bring insights from their unique perspective on hiring and retention, adaptive management styles, office space, and to discuss lessons learned in distributed work environments.

Included in the discussion:

• The new costs of mandating an entirely in-person work week
• How remote environments impact mentorship
• Crucial in-person activities for employees and employers
• Strategies for preserving company culture

Links to mentioned resources:

• The Work/Life Integration Project

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Racial bias in home appraisals and assessments is not just an anecdote. Norm Miller (University of San Diego and Homer Hoyt Institute), Ruchi Singh (University of Georgia), and Richard K. Green (USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) discuss the statistically significant racial and ethnic biases in appraisals and tax assessments. 

Miller details the validity of recent analysis on valuation gaps from Freddie Mac as well as the benefits of automated valuation models. He also cautions that using machine learning without human oversight of variables can result in a different set of biases. 

Singh shows how assessments are regressive, often resulting in a mismatch of a lower property value with higher property taxes. She also points out contributing factors, including why excluding information like nearby schools or the condition of the home can set the assessments in opposition to appraisals. 

More from the discussion:

• How to make the assessment process fairer
• The importance of loan-to-value ratios in underwriting
• Pressure appraisers face in avoiding errors
• Why short-term and long-term appraisal models will be required to avoid bias

Relevant links:

• New York Times Story: Home Appraised With a Black Owner: $472,000. With a White Owner: $750,000.
• Freddie Mac: Racial and Ethnic Valuation Gaps In Home Purchase Appraisals
• William Sprigg’s Lusk Perspectives: Racial Justice and Economics: A Crucial Pairing

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