Clayton Dube (USC U.S.-China Institute) joins Richard K. Green (USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the condition of U.S.-China relations and the latest developments in China’s global influence on trade, supply chain issues, technology, and more. Dube highlights a challenge Chinese officials are watching closely in the coming years: stalling economic growth. To approach the “middle-income” problem, Dube notes the ways in which the government has both relaxed and tightened its grip on markets in an effort to continue the economy’s upward momentum.

Included in the discussion:

• Security concerns between the U.S. and China
• The important distinction between China’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP per capita
• How China’s tech rivalry with the U.S. is evolving
• Why Chinese firms have overpaid in key U.S. real estate transactions

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Joyce Chang delivers an overview of global economic trends to watch heading into 2023 and beyond.

In the near term, Chang sees a mild recession taking effect in late 2023, with a true “soft landing”, as identified by the Federal Reserve, being unlikely. She notes that overall cycles may be shorter, with a likelihood of 4-year recessions rather than the historic 8 or 10, and markets that rally faster to regain losses.

Included in the long-term outlook are remarks on China’s slowing growth, regions that could benefit from supply chain shifts away from China and nearshoring, and the political divides in the US around ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) projects and investing.

Richard K. Green also fields questions on the US housing crisis, how rapidly rising interest rates could affect regional banks and nontraditional finance, the implications of a global aging population, and more.

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Lusk Director Richard K. Green delivers highlights from the 2022 Casden Multifamily Forecast Report. 

Before Green gives a breakdown of Southern California multifamily real estate markets, he pauses to discuss four uncertainties impacting the region. Inflation, interest rates, net migration, and the impending recession are all top-of-mind issues that could dilute the forecast’s potency should any of the factors take a dramatic rise or dip.

As for the forecast, Green reviews historical and forecasted data on each market, including overall economic resiliency, net migration since the pandemic began, construction activity, vacancy rates, rent growth, and more. Regions covered include Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, the Inland Empire, and Ventura.

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