By Jennifer Plotnick
Despite normal winter slowness, home prices in Bakersfield are soaring so far this year.
The price of the average resale home rose about $ 75,235 this January through March compared to the same time last year. That brought the average price of existing homes to nearly $ 247,545, the highest average ever.
"We may end up being the hottest market in the nation," said Gary Crabtree of Affiliated Appraisers in Bakersfield, who tracks local market data.
That'll become more apparent in the next few months, Crabtree said. The sales prices -- and pace -- will likely continue their upward march throughout spring and summer.
Will that happen in two years?
Or five years?
"It's practically impossible to forecast," said Delores Conway, director of the Casden Forecast for the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern Californiacolor>.
As prices in other parts of California continue to rise, the appreciation rate is slowing. Bakersfield's rate is still growing, and it's still relatively affordable.
"You have to look at Kern County relative to what's going on elsewhere," Conway said.
At the year's end, the median price of a home in the Inland Empire was $ 322,000. Compare that with Orange County's median of $ 628,000, she said.
Those high prices mean more out of towners are moving to Bakersfield. The market won't cool until that demand is quenched, Conway said.
In recent years, the local housing market has been especially hot in the summer after a slower winter season. But Bakersfield ranked No. 2 in the nation for price appreciation from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2004, increasing 30.5 percent, according to government figures.
Bakersfield home prices continued to rise during the winter months. Signs of the increased activity Crabtree noted include:
--Resale home prices increased 3.6 percent per month from the fourth quarter of 2004 through the first quarter of this year, based on price per square foot. It's almost an 11 percent increase through the entire first quarter.
--Nearly 190 more homes sold during the first quarter this year compared with last, bringing the total to 2,144.
--Average prices for new construction homes rose nearly $ 97,745 from last year to reach $ 335,632 during the quarter. About 10 percent of the increase was due to increases in construction costs. The other 19 percent increase was due to increased land costs.
--Sales of new construction homes during the quarter more than doubled to 432, up from 203 in the first quarter of 2004.
--Prices of entry-level homes, found mainly in the 93304, 93305 and 93307 ZIP codes, increased about $ 50,000 from the first quarter of last year to this year for an average of $ 165,826.
That locks some hopeful buyers out of the market.
"The first-time buyers are out the door; I feel so bad," said Betty Byrom, owner/ broker of People Realty Inc.
While various programs are increasing their limits on the loans buyers can secure, they aren't keeping up with the market, she said.
"It just breaks your heart," Byrom said.
Even current homeowners looking to move to a bigger home are having troubles.
Homeowner Desiree Drescher decided last June she would rather wait until January this year to buy a home.
Looking for a home in the winter gave Drescher more choices than she'd had in the frenzied market last June, but she also paid $ 60,000 to $ 80,000 more for the home than she would have then. She decided to act quickly, only looking for a home for three weeks before making an offer.
"We had to decide whether to shop longer and go for exactly what we wanted or shop quickly for a home that met a majority of our needs," Drescher said.
She moved into her northwest Bakersfield home in late February. It cost her $ 305,000. Byrom, who was her agent, estimates her home would now sell for $ 350,000.
"What a difference three months can make," Drescher said. "We're extremely happy, but we did compromise a little with what we wanted."
As summer approaches, Bakersfield's housing market will get pricier and busier, just like last year, several real estate professionals predict. Recent activity already shows home prices are already on the rise as the second quarter of the year gets under way.
On the Multiple Listing Service on Friday, 396 homes were listed for sale in Bakersfield at an average price of $ 345,633, Crabtree said. The Bakersfield Listing Service had 225 homes listed at an average of $ 440,550, he said.
The average price for the BLS was higher because several BLS brokers have listings for more than $ 1 million, Crabtree said.