2004
Abstract:
As cities grow, what happens to urban form and how does that change
traffic conditions? How does growing traffic affect urban structure? These
questions have received considerable theoretical and empirical attention over the
last 25 years. They relate to the NIMBY debate, which associates most new
development with traffic problems. Yet, until recently, substantial evidence
tended to show that urban growth did not lead to "traffic doomsday". These
findings contradicted the standard urban model and were surprising because
roads are mainly unpriced and perceived as a significant market failure. Many
researchers explained the rise of suburb-to-suburb commuting (and the
dispersion of employment) as a traffic "safety valve". In that case,
suburbanization was more a solution than a problem. On the other hand,,
recently released findings from the 2000 Census show an increase in average
commuting times that is difficult to reconcile with the earlier findings. What
had changed in the 1990s? This research attempts a preliminary answer to this
question. The key explanation may be income growth, especially in the late
1990s.
