Jon Ann Steinmetz, Mercury News
Commercial leasing ``gives us kind of a window into the future -- it's all based on expectations,'' said Delores Conway, director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast at the University of Southern California. ``Space is expensive, and companies would not lease it or try to buy it if they didn't have to, or if they had doubts about it.'' The fact that companies are looking for space doesn't guarantee they will hire. Economic conditions can change as they did during the dot-com bust, leaving companies stuck with their lease commitments. Still, since companies don't typically broadcast their local hiring plans, leases can act as a good predictor. ``If you take the leasing and say each person occupies 150 to 200 square feet, at least the leasing people think that these many jobs will be created in the next year,'' Rosen said. ``It gives you an indicator of the optimism.'' Government employment surveys don't give a complete picture because they focus only on established companies, Rosen said, which would understate new jobs in areas such as Silicon Valley that have a lot of start-up companies.
March 28, 2006